Nasrallah’s ‘Downfall’ moment is rhetoric vs reality - comment

In the fantastic Oscar-winning movie Downfall, which depicts Adolf Hitler’s last few days in his Berlin bunker, a brilliant scene plays out when the German generals discuss what is taking place. The Russians are only a few hundred meters from the German Chancellory, and the Führer is demanding divisions move left, right, and center to keep up the defense of Berlin.

Generalfeldmarschall Wilhelm Keitel: The Führer has lost all sense of reality.

Generaloberst Alfred Jodl: He moves divisions that only exist on his map. Steiner's scattered unit can hardly defend itself, and yet, Steiner is ordered to attack! It's pure madness!

This scene was brought to mind recently when listening to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah describe the terror group’s attack on Israel “as planned,” refuting the Israeli military's assertions that their pre-emptive strikes had prevented a more extensive attack.

If a major military attack is severely depleted due to the enemy striking first, one would be far-stretched to state that it went “as planned.”

It is a common occurrence that when leaders go ‘underground,’ they lose touch with reality, and when things start to go badly in a war, it is not inconceivable that military commanders withhold information to avoid any possible punishment. Is that possible with Nasrallah? Could he be so unaware of what is taking place? Unlikely, but not impossible.

The technology available is much more advanced than in Berlin in 1945, and it is far from difficult for the Hezbollah leader to stay aware of important junctures in the war. However, this does not mean that he is being told the entire truth.

Many believe that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has consistently been misled by a group of ‘yes-men’ who are too scared to tell him the truth about how badly things were going in the war against Ukraine two years into that conflict. So, it is not beyond the realms of possibility, even in 21st-century warfare.

The likelihood is, though, that Nasrallah’s finger is still very much on the pulse of what is taking place in the cross-border conflict. It is also believed that he is aware that Israel knows his exact location but has, as yet, held back from eliminating him. 

Nasrallah, speaking in a televised broadcast on Sunday, stated that the group would evaluate the consequences of its recent rocket and drone assault on Israeli military targets before deciding on any further retaliatory actions for the death of a senior commander. 

Mission accomplished?

Speaking hours after the most intense exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel since the onset of the Gaza war, Nasrallah emphasized that the group had deliberately avoided targeting civilians or public infrastructure, such as Ben-Gurion Airport. The primary focus of Hezbollah's operation was a military intelligence base located approximately 110 kilometers inside Israeli territory, marking their deepest incursion yet, just north of Tel Aviv.

Over 100 Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets bombed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher sites preemptively as intelligence gathered indicated that at 5 a.m. Sunday morning, the terror group would launch a salvo of rockets and drones at the Jewish state in response to the killing of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr near Beirut last month.

Nasrallah also warned that if the results of this operation were deemed insufficient, Hezbollah reserved the right to launch further attacks, stating, "If the result is not enough, then we retain the right to respond another time."

He also detailed the tactics used in the attack, which involved launching over 300 Katyusha rockets to overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome defense system, followed by the deployment of attack drones, including some launched from the eastern Bekaa Valley—an unprecedented move for Hezbollah. The Hezbollah leader disputed Israeli claims that Hezbollah had planned a larger assault involving thousands of projectiles, though he acknowledged that the operation had been delayed due to what he described as a "mobilization" of Israeli and American military forces in the region.

Israelis have heard enough messages from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran throughout the past ten months to know lies and rhetoric that is designed to appease supporters when they hear it. What Nasrallah said certainly sounded like rhetoric. “Keep your chins up, Hezbollah,” he was saying. We are winning.” Whether his supporters take him at face value is a different proposition.

Hezbollah has suffered tremendous losses during the war against Hamas. The IAF has constantly bombarded terrorists attempting to launch rockets and drones into northern Israel and has done an admirable job despite the North’s depleted population and tragedies such as the deaths of 12 children in Majdal Shams last month.

The war against Hezbollah is far from over, and the terror group can still do significant damage to the North. However, after listening to Nasrallah’s speech, one would be wise to recognize the rhetoric for what it is - a play for his supporters - and not think he is so out of touch with reality, as Hitler was, that he genuinely believes what he is saying.