Where is it all going? Mixed messages from Israel-Lebanon war - analysis

As Israel and Hezbollah continue to strike one another, conflicting reports indicate that a cease-fire between the two sides may be in the works.

The reports indicate that the Israeli government is attempting to reach a cease-fire before newly elected US President Donald Trump is sworn in. But earlier this week, Israel’s new defense minister announced that troops had advanced further into Lebanon and said there would be “no cease-fire and no respite.”

“The negotiations are about the essence of the conflict,” Gabriel Ben-Dor, a political scientist at the University of Haifa, told The Media Line. “It is clear that both sides still have the ability to fire at each other, and it is clear that Hezbollah is not near being disarmed.”

Ben-Dor said that a cease-fire agreement wouldn’t involve disarming Hezbollah but rather demilitarizing the Lebanese territory in between the border with Israel and Lebanon’s Litani River—a distance of about 12 miles.

According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, over 3,200 Lebanese people have been killed since the fighting began last year. Data from the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University show that 100 Israelis have been killed by Hezbollah attacks in the same period, the majority of them civilians.

Continued rocket fire

Rocket fire from Hezbollah into Israel continued on Thursday while the Israeli military continued to conduct airstrikes in several areas in Lebanon. The Israeli military also issued evacuation orders for parts of the Dahieh neighborhood of Beirut, which is considered Hezbollah’s stronghold.

On Wednesday, six Israeli soldiers were killed in Lebanon in one of the deadliest days for the military since the start of the ground operation in southern Lebanon. The invasion began after a yearlong air campaign against Hezbollah.

The Israeli military killed over 200 Hezbollah fighters and destroyed over 140 rocket launchers in the past week, according to a statement released by the military. Overall, Israel has killed thousands of Hezbollah operatives in the past year, the statement said.

“We will not take our foot off the pedal,” newly appointed Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday while speaking to senior military commanders. He added that Israel will not “agree to any deal that does not ensure the disarmament of Hezbollah and its withdrawal across the Litani River—and especially Israel’s right to enforce … and act against any terrorist activity and organization.”

Kobi Michael, a researcher at INSS and the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told The Media Line that Israel would not withdraw from Lebanon until the Lebanese military and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon can effectively restrain Hezbollah.

The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, was established in 2006 as part of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. That resolution brought an end to the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, called for Hezbollah to retreat north of the Litani River, and demanded the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon other than the Lebanese military.

Despite Resolution 1701, Hezbollah gradually ramped up its presence in southern Lebanon in the years since 2006. Israel’s strategy of deterrence was gradually eroded as fear of escalation led Israel to contain Hezbollah attacks and provocations. The failure of this strategy has led some to criticize the Israeli government’s current effort to reach a diplomatic solution to the Hezbollah threat.

“Israel is not the same Israel that it was before last October,” Ben-Dor said. “Israel was deeply scarred by both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah. The military doctrine, which was characterized by containment, waiting, and restraint, is about to change back to the classic Israeli military doctrine, which championed preemptive wars and decisiveness. This will project determination to the enemy and is a huge difference compared to the past, giving hope that a future agreement will be upheld.”

Israel has reportedly reached an agreement with the US on an upgraded Resolution 1701 that would guarantee Israel’s ability to strike Hezbollah if needed. The resolution would also give a stronger mandate to UNIFIL following the force’s failure to demilitarize Hezbollah over the past two decades.

“In addition to a formal agreement, there is likely to be an understanding between Israel and the US that will grant Israel unprecedented freedom of operation against Hezbollah threats,” Ben-Dor said. “There is no other way to stop the conflict unless Israel engages in an endless war in Lebanon.”

Hezbollah is currently unwilling to accept a condition that would allow Israel to maintain its ability to apply force in Lebanon. Israel has ramped up attacks in recent days in an attempt to corner the group into submission.

“Israel will continue to strike at the strategic assets of Hezbollah until an agreement is reached,” Michael said.

Indeed, what looks like a recent intensification of violence from both sides could be a negotiation tactic employed by both Israel and Hezbollah.

“Israel needs to apply as much power as possible. This is a chance to strike at Hezbollah and all of its means,” Michael said. “For Hezbollah, it wants to be seen as saying the last word and still retaining the ability to strike at Israel.”

Hezbollah has suffered significant losses in recent months. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated by Israel in September. A string of Hezbollah senior commanders were also killed, and the group’s tunnel infrastructure and weapons caches have been targeted by Israeli attacks.

After decades of support from Iran, Hezbollah acquired both military might and political clout. For Iran, Hezbollah was supposed to function as a defense and deterrent against Israeli intentions to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. But as Israel makes advances on Hezbollah, Iran has witnessed a negative return on its investment. This dynamic could help bring about a cease-fire.

“Iran does not want to see Hezbollah completely destroyed because it is an important tool for them,” Ben-Dor said. “Israel doesn’t want to elongate the war much longer because it needs Trump focused on more important matters, and Trump doesn’t want to be sworn in with the war in Lebanon still raging.”

Israel’s stated war goal is to return its citizens to communities on the border with Lebanon. Approximately 60,000 Israelis were evacuated by the government last year when the war began. Some have already put down roots elsewhere in the country and have decided not to return, but for many, there is hope that an agreement will allow them to return safely to their homes.

As Israel and Hezbollah attempt to improve their posture in the negotiations for a settlement, there is always a risk that the flames will spiral out of control, delaying an agreement.