Three-way subtext: How Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt quietly back Israel on Iran - analysis

In a region where alliances are as complicated as ever, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt have responded to Israel’s latest military strike on an Iranian base with words that speak volumes – not for what they say, but for what they leave unsaid.

This wasn’t the usual wave of condemnations aimed squarely at Israel; instead, these responses were notably measured, almost neutral, hinting that a quiet shift may be underway among these regional powers.

Each country – while referencing “sovereignty” and “de-escalation” – chooses to avoid condemning Israel outright, instead placing the emphasis on the broader threats to regional stability.

The UAE’s balanced caution

The United Arab Emirates issued a statement condemning “the military targeting of the Islamic Republic of Iran” and calling for “utmost self-restraint.” But the UAE’s choice of words here is as telling as the statement itself. Rather than lambasting Israel, the UAE highlights “the importance of dialogue and adherence to international law,” subtly steering the response toward diplomacy rather than confrontation.

This phrasing aligns with the UAE’s broader diplomatic philosophy and its recent steps toward economic and security cooperation with Israel through the Abraham Accords.

While officially condemning military action, the UAE’s focus on restraint instead of an anti-Israel stance suggests an acknowledgment of Israel’s strategic position, and perhaps even an understanding of its security actions.

Saudi Arabia’s softened tone

Saudi Arabia’s response similarly skirts around direct condemnation. Describing the attack as “a violation of sovereignty,” the kingdom nonetheless places emphasis on “the security and stability of the countries and people of the region.”

A decade ago, a statement from Riyadh might have been sharper, but today, it reflects a careful calibration: a balance between acknowledging Iran’s sovereignty and an implicit tolerance of Israel’s regional security actions.

Saudi Arabia’s measured tone reflects a strategic shift, one that allows the kingdom to show restraint while maintaining its long-standing, unofficial alignment with Israel on countering Iran’s influence. This language – subtly supportive, cautiously critical – reveals an intent to avoid isolating Israel entirely.

Egypt’s diplomatic realism

Egypt’s reaction takes this subtle diplomacy a step further. In a statement that could easily apply to the broader issues in Gaza and Lebanon, Egypt warned of the “serious confrontation that threatens regional and international security,” and urged a “swift ceasefire” across multiple fronts.

By casting a wider net, Egypt effectively shifts the focus from Israel’s actions to the overall stability of the region. Egypt’s words are pragmatic and measured, reflecting its role as a long-standing regional mediator with a keen interest in preserving calm along its borders.

Egypt’s balancing act is a reflection of its unique geopolitical position: The country has long dealt with the complexities of Israel-Palestine dynamics and seeks to contain any threat of conflict escalation that could destabilize its own borders. The broader focus on “regional security” in Egypt’s statement reads more as a call for collective stability than a targeted rebuke.

A quiet realignment in the Middle East?

These carefully worded responses, which refrain from singling out Israel, indicate more than a shift in tone – they hint at a strategic realignment across the region. While each country still supports the Palestinian cause and acknowledges the importance of maintaining Muslim unity, their current priorities lie in curbing Iran’s regional influence, promoting economic stability, and fostering security within their borders.

This “supportive condemnation” suggests that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt may be seeking a more nuanced position: one that accommodates Israel’s defensive stance, or at least provides it a degree of tolerance.

In previous years, an Israeli strike on Iran might have triggered united, vocal condemnation from the Arab world. Today, these measured responses signal that former divides may be receding in favor of shared interests. These nations, long wary of Iran’s influence, appear to be quietly acknowledging Israel’s role as a counterweight to Tehran’s regional ambitions.

For Israel’s supporters, this subtle shift provides a reassuring glimpse into the future – one where Arab neighbors are beginning to see Israel not merely as a rival, but as a potential partner in maintaining regional stability.