Trump’s intelligence community and Iran’s regime change - opinion

Currently, the regime in Tehran is preoccupied with military drills and maneuvers, aiming to showcase its strength. Its goal is clear: to prepare for the potential of a nationwide uprising by the oppressed Iranian people against the brutal mullahs and their theocratic dictatorship.

The regime knows all too well that if Israel were to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities or Khamenei were removed from power, the long-suffering people of Iran would likely rise against the Islamic oppressive regime. Iran stands on the brink of extraordinary events and a historic upheaval, and Donald Trump may face a transformed Iran during his second term as president.

Khamenei and his regime dread Trump’s return to the White House. Their fear and hostility stem from his unwavering support for Israel and staunch opposition to the Islamic Republic in Tehran. Khamenei has repeatedly called for Trump’s assassination, even declaring him irrelevant and consigned to the trash heap of history. 

Yet Trump has returned, stronger than before, with a team composed of patriotic figures like Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor), John Ratcliffe (CIA director), Tulsi Gabbard (National Intelligence director), Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security), Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense), and Marco Rubio (Secretary of State) – all fierce opponents of the Islamic Republic. Their presence alone amplifies the regime’s nightmare.

Trump re-enters the presidency as an 86-year-old Khamenei contemplates revenge, having previously dispatched assassination squads to the US. All counterterrorism agencies under the DHS, FBI, and CIA are well aware of the “sleeper cells” and “lone wolves” tied to Iran’s Intelligence Ministry and the IRGC within the US.

Trump understands that diplomacy with a terror-sponsoring regime is meaningless and an affront to the principles of diplomacy itself. The Islamic Republic of the criminal ayatollahs offers nothing substantive for the negotiation table, has no viable tools of war beyond terrorism, and lacks the resources to wage a conventional war. While Trump has publicly stated he does not explicitly aim for regime change, his return has inspired hope among Iranians who despise their current rulers.

Since the fall of the late Shah in 1979, sacrificed by then-US president Jimmy Carter’s ill-conceived and misguided policies, the people of Iran have lost their national pride and identity. 

Trump’s decisive elimination of Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, Iran’s top IRGC thug, among the world’s most dangerous terrorists, brought a rare moment of collective joy to the Iranian people who prayed for Trump’s success while showing no sympathy for the slain terrorist. Without exaggeration and strangely enough, the majority of Iranians saw Trump as a patriotic hero.

A Middle East free of an isolated and weakened IslamiRepublic would be a region transformed. Imagine, for a moment, such a reality. The Shi’ite mullahs will not strike a deal with Trump; they will refuse to comply with international norms or abandon terrorism, nuclear weapons, and missile programs. 

They lack the capability for war against Israel or the US as their crumbling economy renders them vulnerable to defeat with a single trigger. The likelihood of the regime collapsing under external pressure and a popular uprising is high. Trump’s return emboldens the Iranian people to rise fearlessly against their tyrannical, war-mongering, opportunistic, and destructive rulers.

Trump’s policies will once again paralyze the mullah’s regime in Iran. His leadership in the White House represents a defining moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy, marked by decisive opposition to the Islamic Republic’s destructive actions and the fight against Islamist terrorism while fostering peace. By strengthening security ties with Israel, Trump will neutralize the military and security threats posed by Iran’s regime and its terrorist regional proxies. His “pushback” strategy will reemerge, placing the Iranian people at the forefront of transformative change.

Weakening the regime

IN THE COMING days, influential Iranian American advocacy groups will likely amplify global awareness of the regime’s true nature, dismantling the shameless policies of pro-regime lobbyists and their manipulative narratives in the US. Counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic Republic will certainly intensify.

Trump’s policy of maximum pressure on the mullahs will reestablish a global consensus against the Islamic Republic, the most dangerous terrorist power of the 21st century. Across the Middle East, his return is greeted with enthusiasm, as Persian Gulf states recognize the IRGC and Iranian intelligence as the root of their fears and tragedies. The Arab community welcomes Trump’s return, recognizing it as a critical counterbalance to Iran’s destabilizing activities. 

With Trump’s return, the “sword of peace” is wielded by someone who stands decisively against terrorism and seeks to de-escalate regional tensions. This contrasts sharply with those who, while pretending to be allies of Arabs and Jews, secretly supported and funded terrorists while remaining silent against IRGC interventions worldwide.

Under Trump’s watch, Khamenei’s succession may occur in Iran. Trump’s administration recognizes that neither Khamenei nor his successor holds any sacred or respectable legitimacy; they are merely caliphs in a brutal theocratic dictatorship sustained by propaganda, terrorism, and oppression. 

History will record that Trump championed sanctions and maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic, cutting off its regional influence and undermining its confidence. His support for Israeli-Arab relations, coupled with his administration’s intelligence and military expertise, will counteract Iranian-backed Islamist terrorism across multiple fronts. Meanwhile, some have urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to compromise with terrorists mobilized under Khamenei’s orders for Israel’s destruction.

In the Middle East, Trump’s return marks a new chapter: a rejection of appeasement and commitment to peace through strength. Trump’s intelligence team has hundreds of unfinished tasks to address, perhaps the most historic of which is dismantling the Islamic Republic’s terrorist octopus surrounding Israel and crippling the regime in Tehran. 

Khamenei’s survival hinges on terrorism and enmity toward Israel and the United States. If these tools are stripped from him and his cronies, there will be no trace of the Islamic Republic left. Let us hope for that day.

The writer, based in Washington, is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His new book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com, and on X @EQFARD