Kirby’s clarity and US polls showing support for Israel - analysis

Despite warnings by some Progressives that US President Joe Biden’s strong support for Israel in its war against Hamas will cost him in next November’s elections, Biden administration officials continue to be very clear and supportive in their messaging about Israel.

And there is no one—outside of Biden himself—more clear or supportive than retired navy admiral John Kirby, Biden’s foreign policy and national security spokesman.

Kirby, who holds the official title as National Security Council Coordinator for Security Communications, was asked at a press briefing on Monday what he has to say to protestors who have a new nickname for Biden because of his support for Israel in this war: “Genocide Joe.”

“This word ‘genocide’ is getting thrown around in a pretty inappropriate way by lots of different folks,” said Kirby. “What Hamas wants, make no mistake about it, is genocide. They want to wipe Israel off the map. They’ve said so publicly on more than one occasion—in fact, just recently.

“And they’ve said that they’re not going to stop; what happened on the 7th of October is going to happen again and again and again. And what happened on the 7th of October? Murder. Slaughter of innocent people in their homes or at a music festival. That’s genocidal intentions.”

Kirby rejects 'genocide' word for Israel's actions; says it's appropriate for Hamas

Israel, Kirby said, with the same clarity he has used to defend Israel during this war on a number of other occasions, that Israel "is not trying to wipe the Palestinian people off the map. Israel is not trying to wipe Gaza off the map. Israel is trying to defend itself against a genocidal terrorist threat. So, when we’re going to start—if we’re going to start using that word, fine, let’s use it appropriately.”

If the administration is worried about possible political blowback as a result of Biden’s support for Israel during the war, then it is not being reflected in any comments coming out of the White House. On the contrary, the White House is doubling down on its support.

When White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked at that same press briefing what the White House makes of Democrats and particularly young people not approving of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, she said that the administration is “not going to [be] govern[ed] by polls here.”

Then she went on to say that the administration will continue to focus “on delivering for the American people.”

She, too, did not seem overly concerned by the polling, aware—obviously—that the presidential elections are a full year away, and that in the interim the Israel-Hamas war will be overtaken by other events, both global and domestic.

Moreover, US polling over the last two weeks continues—despite high-profile anti-Israel sentiment in some media, on campus, and at loud pro-Palestinian demonstrations  — to show strong support for Israel and in favor of Biden’s position on the war, with the exception of those in the 18-24 age group.

A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll conducted among 2,851 registered voters from November 15-16 showed that 58% of the respondents approve of Biden’s Israel policies, while 42% disapprove. Asked whether the president should pull back his support on Israel, 66% said he should not, while only 34% said he should.

Younger demographic says Biden should pull back support for Israel

The problem, however, is with the 18-24 demographic, where the numbers were nearly reversed, with 61% saying he should pull back on that support, and 39% saying he should continue supporting Israel at the current level. Among those 65 and above, however, the support for Israel—and for Biden’s support of Israel—is massive: 84% - 16%.

Kirby’s comment about Hamas’ genocidal intent is shared by the vast majority of Americans, according to this poll, with 72% saying the October 7 attacks were genocidal, and 28% saying they were not.

Israel’s problem with the younger demographic is well illustrated in this question: when asked whether the Hamas attack on Israel was justified by Palestinian grievances, 58% of those between 18-24 said it was, compared to only 28% of the total population, while only 42% of the youth said there was no justification for the attack, compared to 72% of the general population.

The abysmal level of knowledge by the youth of Israel came out when they were asked whether Israel is a democracy or a state ruled by an authoritative ruler, with 44% saying it was ruled by an authoritative ruler, and another 41% saying Hamas was democratic.

 Asked whether Hamas allows Gays to live together or openly punishes them, some 45% of the 18-24 demographic said the Islamic terror group ruling Gaza allows them to live together openly, and 55% said Hamas punishes them. Asked the same question about Israel, only 51% of this demographic said Israel allows Gays to live together openly, while fully 49% said the country punishes them.

Israel, clearly, is badly misunderstood by those aged 18-24. That’s the bad news, the good news is that these opinions change as the youth mature.

According to this poll, fully 57% of the respondents have a favorable opinion of Israel, while only 22% had an unfavorable opinion. As far as the Palestinian Authority is concerned, 22% had a favorable opinion, and 45% an unfavorable one.

Almost a fifth of young respondents have a favorable opinion of Hamas

Astonishingly, from an Israeli perspective, 17% of the respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Hamas, compared to 61% who said they had an unfavorable opinion.

Biden administration officials are probably correct in not being overly concerned that the president’s support will cost him votes in the election, as the Israel-Hamas war came in 11th place when respondents were asked what are the most important issues facing the country today. And keep in mind, today the war is front-page news; by next November, it will probably be long forgotten in the US.

Another recent poll also indicated that Biden need not fret that this issue will cost him votes. An NBC poll conducted from November 10-14 among 1,000 registered voters found that only 5% of the respondents said that they feel so strongly about this issue that it will determine whether they vote for or against a candidate in the next election. The poll did not, however, say what percentage of that 5% were pro-Israel supporters from whom supporting Israel is their determining factor in deciding whom to vote for.

A Jewish Electoral Institute poll conducted from November 5-9 among 800 Jewish registered voters—a poll that showed overwhelming Jewish support for Biden’s position on the war—found that 51% feel “very emotionally attached” to Israel, and another feel “somewhat emotionally attached.” Only 18% of these Jewish respondents said that felt very little or no attachment to the Jewish state.

The NBC Poll, which highlighted an overall erosion in Biden’s favorability ratings and whose pollsters attributed this to Democratic disapproval of his support for Israel, nevertheless showed that 47% of the respondents had positive feelings toward  Israel, while 24% had negative ones. Regarding “Palestine,” those figures were reversed, with 38% having a negative impression, and only 10 percent a positive view.

These findings were borne out in yet another poll—this one a Quinnipiac Poll—conducted November 9 - 13 among 1,574 registered voters. In this poll, 54% of the respondents said their sympathies were more for Israel than the Palestinians, with 24% saying they were more sympathetic toward the Palestinians. Among Democrats, 41% said they were more sympathetic to the Palestinians, and only 34% toward Israel.

One may look at those figures and say that if this is the case, then Biden could indeed get hurt in the upcoming election because of his strong support for Israel in this war. 

 But there are two factors to keep in mind: the first is that the Independent voters in this poll favor Israel over the Palestinians 48% to 22%, and Biden will need Independent votes to win a general election. 

And, in addition, if it is a matchup between Biden and former president Donald Trump in the end, it is hard to imagine that scores of Democrats are going to vote for Trump because of this issue, or that a significant number of them would vote for a third-party candidate knowing that this could give Trump the election.