How a Trump win could cost the world $900 billion

A victory for Donald Trump could markedly worsen the climate crisis, according to an analysis published last week by Carbon Brief.

The study showed that a second Trump term could increase carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by up to 4 billion more tons by 2030. 

To put this into perspective, that's as much CO2 as what the European Union and Japan emit annually combined, according to Carbon Brief. Additionally, it's equal to the yearly emissions of the 140 countries with the lowest emissions in the world combined. 

This surge in emissions would effectively cancel out the environmental benefits gained from implementing wind, solar, and other clean energy technologies worldwide over the past five years – twice over.

The Carbon Brief study compared the climate strategies of the Biden administration to what Trump is expected to be planning for a second term based on an aggregation of modeling by various US research groups. The authors said the analysis doesn't consider any new climate policies that a second Biden term might implement after 2025. It also doesn't address the possible effects of pro-fossil fuel policies that a second Trump administration might introduce.

Trump has vowed to repeal Biden's climate policies

Rabbi Jennie Rosenn, founder and CEO of Dayenu: A Jewish Call to Climate Action, explained that former US President Barack Obama made some progress on tackling the climate crisis. However, Trump walked back nearly all of it, taking "dangerous steps" such as leaving the Paris Climate Agreement.

"President Biden had the US rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed in 2022, was the most significant piece of climate legislation in US history – over $300b in clean energy investments," Rosenn explained.

Trump has unequivocally stated his intention to once again repeal his predecessor's climate policies if he wins the election, including his plan to "gut" the IRA, according to a 2023 report by the Financial Times. 

According to the Carbon Brief analysis, if Trump wins, America is expected to fall far short of its 2030 climate targets. It's projected that emissions will only decrease by 28% from 2005 levels by 2030, while the goal is a reduction of up to 52%. 

In contrast, Biden's current policies are anticipated to achieve a 43% reduction in emissions compared to 2005 levels by 2030.

The cumulative addition of around 4 billion tons of CO2 emissions would cause global climate damages worth more than $900 billion, according to the analysis. 

"This figure might even underestimate the true cost, given Trump's 'drill, baby, drill' stance, which was excluded from our initial analysis," the analysis said.

Finally, the report highlighted a concerning fact: America, the world's second-largest emitter, plays a significant role in climate change. If Trump wins, the analysts warned, the world could surpass the 1.5°C global warming limit or even exceed the two °C threshold.

"It is indisputable at this point that global temperatures are steadily and dramatically rising," Rosenn told The Jerusalem Post. "2023 was the warmest year on record. We just saw each month break the record for the past nine months. The world's oceans saw record-high temperatures.

"Higher temperatures fuel more extreme weather events … threatening food supplies, displacing millions of people, [and] causing the more rapid spread of disease," she continued. 

Rosenn said that emissions from fossil fuels primarily drive temperature rise, and the more the world can shift away from these fuels towards renewable and clean energy, the slower the climate will change. However, she said that as the Carbon Brief analysis reveals, even more than Biden's current policies is needed. 

"We should encourage climate-concerned voters to make sure they are registered to vote and to vote in all upcoming elections," Rosenn said. "Our very ability to live l'dor v'dor, generation to generation, depends on taking bold action on climate while we still have time. 

"Together, we must build a just, livable, and sustainable future for all people for generations to come. The time is now."