Low voter turnout among American Christians and Jews could impact 2024 election, study finds

A recent report from the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University, led by Dr. George Barna, has revealed a significant decline in voter turnout enthusiasm among religious voters for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vying for the presidency, the study suggests that approximately 104 million people of faith, including 32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church, may abstain from voting this November.

The report, cited by The New American and CatholicVote, finds that only 51% of "people of faith"—a group encompassing Christians, Muslims, Jews, Mormons, and other religious traditions—are planning to vote. This signals a potentially large drop in voting participation from a demographic that has historically played a critical role in elections. The researchers define "people of faith" as individuals who describe themselves as having religious beliefs or associate with a recognized religious tradition such as Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism, Islam, and others. According to this definition, 79% of Americans qualify as people of faith.

Depressed voting intent among Christians and Jews

Dr. George Barna, speaking with CatholicVote, emphasized the importance of this trend: "One of the most important findings of the research is the depressed voting intent of 'people of faith.'" He highlighted that the 32 million Christians who regularly attend church services but are unlikely to vote represent a much larger margin than the votes that decided the 2020 election in key battleground states.

Arizona Christian University President Len Munsil, in his interview with The New American, underscored two major takeaways from the study: "First, that Christians could be the deciding factor in a bunch of federal and state races—and are choosing not to be. And second, that they are longing for their local church to instruct them on how to think biblically about policy and politics."

According to the report, 83% of adults who identify as religious are Christians, but it is estimated that 46 million church-attending Protestants and 19 million church-attending Catholics will not participate in the election. This represents a substantial portion of the faith community that could shift the election's outcome if mobilized.

Reasons for low engagement among voters of faith

The study further revealed that the most common reasons cited by voters for abstaining from voting include a lack of interest in politics (68%), "disliking" all major candidates (57%), and believing that their vote will not make a difference (52%). Half of the respondents pointed to the controversial nature of the election as their reason for staying away from the polls, while nearly 48% expressed concerns over potential election rigging or a lack of sufficient information about the candidates to make an informed decision, according to The New American.

Despite efforts by churches to engage their congregants in the political process, many Christian churches have chosen not to encourage voting or address key social issues related to the election. According to CatholicVote, only 56% of churches have actively encouraged voting, and fewer still have taken more concrete steps, such as registering voters (26%) or distributing voter guides (24%). This lack of engagement has led to frustration among regular churchgoers, particularly within Protestant and Catholic communities.

Differences in church engagement

However, the role of churches in voter engagement varies across congregations. The survey highlighted that black churches are significantly more active in election-related activities compared to other Christian churches. Black churches are more than twice as likely to register voters (55% compared to 25%) and are also more likely to provide voter guides (53% versus 23%).

For Christians who regularly attend church, inflation and the cost of living are the most pressing issues influencing their choice of candidate, with 67% citing these concerns. The economy follows closely at 64%, immigration and border control at 60%, and crime and law enforcement at 59%. While issues such as poverty, government mismanagement, and abortion remain important, only 1% of churchgoing Christians said that these issues wouldn’t affect their vote. However, many pastors rarely address topics critical to their congregants, CatholicVote reported.

The impact on the 2024 election

Dr. George Barna expressed concern over the potential electoral impact of this disengagement. "If church leaders, family members, and close friends will use their influence to get reticent voters from their churches to cast a ballot on November 5, the election outcome will be meaningfully affected," he told The New American. Historically, Christian voters have supported conservative candidates, and a low turnout from religious voters could directly impact Donald Trump's reelection chances.

In close races, even small shifts in voter turnout can have a dramatic effect. "The voting results that tell the real story are the margins of victory in the swing states," Barna remarked to The New American. "In 2020, the margins of victory were a combined 587,000 votes in nine battleground states. Cumulatively, they represented about one-fifth of the Electoral College votes—104 out of the 538 electoral votes. In that context, the 32 million Christians sitting in the pews each week who refuse to vote are a gamechanger."

Low turnout's potential to shape the future

The Cultural Research Center conducted two national surveys in August and September 2024, targeting 2,000 self-identified Christians who attend church regularly and 1,000 voting-age adults. Both samples were statistically weighted to reflect demographic representation, with margins of error ranging from ±3 to ±4 percentage points. The surveys combined phone and online interviews, with respondents sharing that they would welcome biblical teachings on topics such as inflation, the economy, immigration, and crime, but these issues remain largely unaddressed by their pastors.

With 104 million people of faith predicted to abstain from voting, this trend could reshape the political landscape in 2024. Dr. Barna, speaking to CatholicVote, stressed the significance of activating these voters: "The 32 million Christians sitting in church pews each week who are unlikely to vote could have a decisive impact on the election, especially in swing states. Church leaders have a critical role to play in mobilizing these voters and influencing the future of the country."