Iran has 'dramatically' increased enrichment to near bomb grade -IAEA

Iran is "dramatically" increasing the amount of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, that it is able to produce, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters in an interview.

The move is certain to cause even greater alarm in Western capitals already arguing that there is no civilian justification for Iran's enrichment to that level as no other country has done so without producing nuclear bombs, which Iran denies pursuing.

Iran already has enough material enriched to up to 60%, its most highly enriched stock, for four nuclear weapons in principle if it enriched it further, according to an IAEA yardstick. It has enough for more at lower enrichment levels, Reuters reported. 

"Today the agency is announcing that the production capacity is increasing dramatically of the 60% inventory," Grossi said on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain's capital.

He added that it was set to rise to "seven, eight times more, maybe, or even more" than the previous rate of 5-7 kg a month.

No diplomatic de-escalation efforts

Additionally, a US Office of the Director of National Intelligence report revealed on Thursday that if Iran continues with its expected uranium enrichment, it will be able to produce 12 nuclear bombs. 

While, as of the time the report was written, Iran is "not building a nuclear weapon," it has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce one."

"Iran could produce more than a dozen nuclear weapons if its total uranium stockpile were further enriched," the report added.

The escalation comes just a week after European and Iranian officials made little progress in meetings on whether they could engage in serious talks over the disputed nuclear program, before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.

Tehran was angered by a resolution last month put forward by Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, that criticized Iran for poor cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

Friday's announcement is also a setback for Grossi since he said after a trip to Iran in November that Tehran had accepted his "request" that it cap its stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% to ease diplomatic tensions, calling it "a concrete step in the right direction."

Diplomats said at the time, however, that Iran's step, which included preparing to implement that cap, was conditional on the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors not passing a resolution against Iran over its insufficient cooperation with the agency, which the Board then did regardless.

"We do not have any diplomatic process ongoing which could lead to a de-escalation, or a more stable equation when it comes to Iran," Grossi said. "This is regrettable."

After Israel's April strikes on the country, Iranian officials have begun to publicly discuss nuclear weapons as a deterrent to Western pressure. The US report cites this as a significant shift within Iranian political thinking that "risks emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus" and changes the mindset of present and future Tehran officials elites about the efficacy of nuclear weapons.

The report stated that Tehran would likely take actions ranging from operating more advanced centrifuges to enriching uranium up to 90% and withdrawing from the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

"Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium at multiple underground facilities, if it so chooses," the report stated, adding that Tehran recognizes that this adds credibility to nuclear weapons threats. 

Reuters reported that the IAEA verified that Iran had started feeding uranium hexafluoride gas enriched to up to 20% instead of the previous 5% into two interconnected cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow enriching to up to 60%, close to the roughly 90% of weapons-grade.

That meant the pace at which Iran would enrich to 60% would increase dramatically, an IAEA report showed, naming a monthly production rate of over 34 kg at Fordow alone. A quarterly IAEA report last month showed Iran's total production rate at that level at two sites, including Fordow, was roughly 6 kg a month. 

The report further stated that Iran "continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of these systems," and that it is learning how to use UAV's more effectively from its ally Russia and from operations in Israel such as it's October attack. 

The head of France's external intelligence service said last week that Iranian nuclear proliferation was undoubtedly one of the threats, if not the most critical threat in the coming months.

Reuters reported that a German foreign ministry official said Iran's increase in the amount of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity is a serious escalation and worsens diplomatic efforts to resolve disputes over its nuclear program. 

"This is a serious escalatory step by Iran, which we strongly condemn. It is obvious that such measures significantly worsen the framework for diplomatic efforts," the source said to Reuters. 

The E3 have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, notably since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia. However, they have always insisted that they wanted to maintain a policy of pressure and dialog to revive talks well before the 2015 accord ends in October 2025.