Russia packing up military equipment at base in Syria, satellite images show

Russia appears to be packing up military equipment at a military air base in Syria, according to satellite images released by Maxar following a Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led offensive against President Bashar Assad last weekend.

The images taken on Friday show what appear to be at least two Antonov AN-124s, one of the world's largest cargo planes, with their nose cones open at the Hmeimim air base in Syria's coastal Latakia province.

"Two An-124 heavy transport aircraft are at the airfield—both with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load equipment/cargo," Maxar said.

"Nearby, a Ka-52 attack helicopter is being dismantled and likely prepared for transport while elements of an S-400 air defense unit are similarly preparing to depart from its previous deployment site at the air base."

Russia's naval base at Tartus, Russia's only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub, "remains largely unchanged since our Dec. 10 imagery coverage with two frigates continuing to be observed offshore of Tartous," Maxar said.

New satellite imagery taken today by @Maxar shows two Russian An-124 heavy transport aircraft at Hmemim airbase in Syria with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load. A Ka-52 attack helicopter is also seen being dismantled and likely prepared for transport. pic.twitter.com/eyDSQ377Mp

— Evan Hill (@evanhill) December 13, 2024

No longer a satellite?

Britain's Channel 4 news reported that it had seen a convoy of more than 150 Russian military vehicles moving along a road. The Russian military was reportedly moving in good order, and it appeared there had been a deal struck to allow the Russians to exit Syria in an orderly fashion.

The Russian S400 is definitely leaving Khmeimim Air Base. The drone video from yesterday shows that they have packed up their 91N6E radar and it was parked on the apron ready to be loaded onto an AN-124. https://t.co/HGCs2211pz pic.twitter.com/XbSNjVvh60

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) December 13, 2024

“This drawdown may signal a complete Russian exit from Syria, but it is too early to tell," wrote Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a post on X/Twitter, adding that it was still "unclear if this is a complete exit. There are indications and rumors to that effect, but best to wait for the evidence."

CNN Turkey claimed that Russia had asked Turkey for help in withdrawing its troops to Turkish-controlled areas of Syria before bringing them back to Russia.

The satellite imagery confirmed Ukrainian military intelligence that suggested that the Kremlin was withdrawing from Syria after the fall of Assad, the Kyiv Independent reported.

Additionally, the Moscow Times reported that two anonymous Russian diplomats admitted that a withdrawal from Tartus and Khmeimim was likely. 

"This will impact Russian logistics for supplying the Africa Corps and all these regional presence ambitions. Everything might break down," Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the Moscow Times. "An alternative can be found, for example, Algeria, but in any case, everything will become much more complicated,"

The Kremlin has said its focus since Assad's fall was to ensure the security of its military bases in Syria as well as its diplomatic missions.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the Kremlin was working towards an agreement with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to maintain its bases in Syria. 

An anonymous person with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg that the Russian Defense Ministry believed it had reached an informal understanding with HTS that it could stay at the country's bases in Syria. 

On Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told reporters that Russia had established contact with HTS, that the Kremlin hopes that the group would "honor promises," and that talks were "proceeding in a constructive fashion."

“I assume that everyone agrees that the fight against terrorism and the remnants of ISIS is not over,” Bogdanov said, according to Interfax. “This requires collective effort, and in this sense, our presence and the Khmeimim base have been playing an important role.”

"The bases are still there, where they were on Syrian territory. No other decisions have been made for the moment," Reuters quoted him as saying.

"They were there at the Syrians' request with the aim of fighting terrorists from the Islamic State. I am proceeding on the basis of the notion that everyone agrees that the fight against terrorism, and what remains of IS, is not over."