Iran's Khamenei downplays need for proxies across Middle East - analysis

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that Iran does not need proxy forces. “If we decide to take action [against the enemy] one day, we don’t need proxy forces,” he said during a speech on Sunday. He also posted the claims on his social media account on X/Twitter.

The claim contradicts the actual actions of Iran in the region, as the Islamic Republic backs groups such as Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as a plethora of Iraqi militias.

Iran’s Supreme Leader made the comments in the context of Iran’s recent setbacks in the region. Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power by Syrian rebel groups on December 8. This was a major blow to Iran.

However, Tehran wants to put on a brave face and make it seem that Iran has accepted Assad’s fall. In fact, part of the reason why Assad fell was because Iran was unable to provide much assistance to Assad and decided to cut its losses.

This temporarily cuts off Iran’s land route to its Hezbollah proxy, which used to go through Iraq and Syria. 

It is not clear if Iran will find a new route to supply weapons to Hezbollah, which has been greatly weakened by Israel’s actions.

The Iranian Ayatollah discussed the issue of proxies more broadly. “They say that the Islamic Republic has lost its proxies in the region. [The] Islamic Republic doesn’t have proxy forces. Yemen fights due to their faith. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad fight because their beliefs compel them to do so.”

The point he is trying to make is that all these Iranian-linked groups make their own decisions. In some ways, he has a point.

The Houthis emerged largely without major Iranian support and only became more powerful once Iran began to help them with their drone and missile program.

Hamas is not an Iranian creation; it is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and is backed by Turkey and Qatar, two Western allies. 

In essence, Iran only piggy-backed on Hamas’s success by backing it.

Hezbollah is much more an Iranian proxy. However, in recent years, Hezbollah became so powerful that it appeared that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was, in some ways, the junior partner. 

Especially given the fact that after Qasem Soleimani, the IRGC’s Quds force leader, was killed by the US in 2020, the IRGC looked to Hassan Nasrallah for leadership.

The new boss

Nasrallah assumed this mantle and began to coordinate with the Houthis, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. As such, Iran’s proxy became the new boss. 

This also made Hezbollah “too big to fail” in a sense and switched some of the roles between Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah was expected to help deter Israel from striking Iran over the last several years.

However, once it was weakened, Assad was exposed. As such, the Iranian leader can argue that it was not a “proxy” because it wasn’t doing Iran’s orders as much as Iran was following its lead. Iran, for instance, was not able to prod Hezbollah into a full war with Israel on October 7.

The Iraqi militias are much closer to Iran. These include Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba. Together, they claim to be an Islamic “resistance” and have targeted Israel.

Khamenei spoke at an event Sunday marking the birth anniversary of Hazrat Fatima Zahra, the daughter of the Prophet Muhammad. 

According to reports, the son of Hassan Nasrallah, Sayyed Muhammad Mahdi Nasrallah, attended, perhaps showing the continued link between Iran and Hezbollah.