Israeli real estate faces major challenges coming into 2024

As the final pages of the calendar turn in 2023, the Israeli real estate market finds itself at a crucial juncture, navigating a nuanced landscape marked by both cooling trends and remarkable resilience. A thorough examination of this dynamic environment requires delving into the insightful perspectives of key figures in the industry, namely Avraham Aberman, managing partner of S. Friedman Abramson & Co, and Simon Synett, partner at SFA law firm.

“The performance of the Israeli real estate market in 2023 can be described as a complex interplay of various factors, including economic pressures and the disruptive impact of the war with Hamas,” noted Aberman and Synett. This evaluation captures the essence of a year that witnessed the ebb and flow of market dynamics, a delicate dance between external pressures and internal fortitude.

Economic pressures and market caution

The meteoric price hikes that characterized previous years notably subsided, but the market retained a cautious stance. The experts elaborated, "Economic factors, particularly interest rate hikes, exerted considerable strain on developers, especially those with highly leveraged portfolios. This economic pressure birthed a cautious market atmosphere, with stakeholders hesitant to sell at reduced prices, leading to a wait-and-see scenario."

This hesitancy, a natural response to economic uncertainties, paints a picture of a market grappling with challenges while carefully gauging the landscape before making significant moves.

Synett and Aberman delved into the challenges faced by the construction sector, emphasizing, “The construction sector faced unprecedented challenges due to labor shortages resulting from a significant reduction in Palestinian and foreign workers.” This shortage, a consequence of the war, poses a tangible threat to housing supply.

In response to this critical issue, they highlighted the importance of swift government intervention, recognizing the essence of a robust housing supply for the market’s survival.

Adaptation and recovery: Early signs amidst the freeze

The outbreak of the war with Hamas has brought about a near-total freeze in market activities, creating an environment fraught with challenges. However, Aberman and Synett identified early signs of recovery, exemplified by a noteworthy uptick in mortgage lending after historic lows witnessed in October. This resilience suggests that, despite the headwinds faced, the real estate sector is finding ways to adapt and recover.

Simultaneously, robust demand persists, driven in part by Jews abroad seeking safe havens in Israel amid escalating global antisemitism. A growing demand within Israel for apartments equipped with safe rooms has further shaped market dynamics. “This demand is likely to be met by a boom of numerous urban renewal projects,” they noted.

Looking ahead to 2024: Navigating uncertainties with strategic foresight

Looking ahead to 2024, the experts acknowledged the significant challenges awaiting the Israeli real estate market. “If interest rates remain high and the war drags on or fails to deliver a renewed sense of security among the population, the year ahead may see further turbulence,” they said.

Despite uncertainties, they emphasized that the Israeli real estate market, characterized by its ability to weather transitions, remains an arena where strategic foresight and resilience can pave the way for sustained growth. “The market’s inherent strength and potential for adaptation suggests that opportunities for the astute investor will undoubtedly continue to emerge," the two concluded.

As stakeholders and investors peer into the horizon of 2024, the lessons learned from the past year will undoubtedly shape strategies and decisions in navigating the dynamic real estate market of Israel. The industry’s ability to weave through complexities, respond to external pressures, and maintain a delicate equilibrium between caution and innovation positions it as a key player in shaping the economic trajectory of the nation as it faces its most difficult period in recent memory.