S&P Global: Gold discoveries dropping among miners

Every year since 1990 has featured at least one major gold discovery by miners, which led to a notable increase in the supply of the yellow metal.

That is, until 2023, when global mining companies invested a staggering $5.9 billion into exploration and didn’t discover a single major source of gold. 

“The lack of quality discoveries in the recent decade does not bode well for the gold supply,” said Paul Manalo, of S&P Global. “Since 2020, there have only been five major discoveries with a total of 17 million ounces of gold, accounting for just 22% of the additional 79 million ounces of gold added in the 2024 update.”

Manalo pointed out a notable trend of mining companies focusing on already established operations rather than making new discoveries.

“None of the discoveries made in the last ten years have entered the list of the largest 30 gold discoveries, supporting our long-held view that the decadelong focus on older and known deposits limits the chance of finding huge discoveries in early-stage prospects,” he said.

Gold to hit peak supply in 2026

Manalo’s analysis suggests the global gold supply will peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven by increased production in Australia, Canada and the United States — countries that account for most of the gold discovered.

“Gold supply is expected to fall to 103 million ounces in 2028, resulting from a decline in these countries,” he said.

Manalo said he feels the future of gold supply is a mixed bag.

“The focus on old and existing assets has taken a toll on the number and size of discoveries in recent years, as proven by the lack of substantial discoveries in the last decade. However, the increasing gold budgets since 2017 bring a tad bit of optimism for the future of gold supply, as the number of initial resource announcements continues to grow in size and number,” he concluded.