'The logical choice': 17 years after he fled, could Dahlan lead a post-Hamas Gaza?

Former Gaza-based Palestinian politician Mohammad Dahlan has been floated as a person who might return to Gaza and play a renewed role there, according to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal, however Dahlan himself refuted these claims, saying he would not take a leadership role despite rumors circulating.

The one-time Fatah strongman who once ran Gaza has been living abroad for many years after he was forced to flee Gaza during the Hamas coup in 2007. Dahlan has been at odds in the past with the Palestinian Authority leadership, and he has resided in the United Arab Emirates for many years, where he enjoys good relations with the leadership.

The reports about Dahlan could be relevant, according to a person with knowledge about the matter.

“I think Dahlan is the only possible transitional leader now – more like [former Afghan president Hamid] Karzai,” the source said.

This means it’s worth taking these reports seriously and looking back at Dahlan’s origins and the current state of play in Gaza.

Dahlan’s name has come up in relation to Gaza – and for good reason. There is a lack of names of those who might be able to fill a void in leadership in Gaza if Hamas is weakened. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to the US Congress on Wednesday and suggested that while Israel would maintain security over Gaza to prevent another Hamas October 7-style attack, civilian leadership was needed in Gaza.

For more than six months, there has been talk in Israel about the need for a “day after” plan. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has floated the idea several times, but it has come up against pushback from other parts of the government.

The problem is that there aren’t a lot of good options for rulers of Gaza. The idea of using “clans” to rule parts of Gaza, or “civilian bubbles” free of Hamas, appeared to be shot down when Hamas murdered a well-known clan leader. The clans will only grow in strength if there is chaos and Hamas is completely weakened.

Clans are not known for being good leaders of areas, unless all law and order has collapsed, and there are no governments or terrorist groups in charge. This was the problem discovered in Iraq and Syria regarding “clan” rule.

At the same time, representatives of 14 Palestinian factions recently went to Beijing, where they agreed to work on reconciliation and unity, including Fatah and Hamas. Therefore, there is an absence of Palestinian leadership for Gaza that would also be amenable to Israel.

The silver lining is that there have been reports about meetings between Israeli, UAE, and American officials to discuss Gaza. According to a report at Axios, “The Israeli officials said the Emirati foreign minister Abdullah Bin Zayed (ABZ) hosted the meeting. President Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, and State Department counselor Tom Sullivan attended from the US side.”

Dahlan could be a possible leader in the future, according to a person with knowledge about the matter.

“He has bridges with everyone but is not necessarily liked by everyone,” the source said. “But I can’t think of anyone else who has his credentials.”

The only caveat to this would be if jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti is released. Barghouti is popular, but it is unlikely Israel will release him even as part of a hostage deal.

The logical choice

DAHLAN ALSO would be a logical choice from the UAE’s perspective. He enjoys connections in Gaza and has been absent from Gaza for 17 years. Absence likely makes some of the older generation look fondly upon the pre-2007 era, when they had more peace and Hamas hadn’t destroyed Gaza in numerous wars. They might welcome the return of Dahlan.

Dahlan also has aged since when he was forced out. He has learned a lot in the UAE, and he knows much more about the region now, having reportedly dealt with key issues spanning the Middle East during his period abroad. Exile doesn’t make some incapable of returning. Yasser Arafat, it should be recalled, was in exile in Tunisia before returning after the First Intifada.

Dahlan's background

Dahlan was born in Khan Yunis in Gaza. Khan Yunis is also the hometown of many key Hamas leaders in Gaza today. In essence, one could conclude that Gaza has basically been led by Khan Yunis men in recent decades.A profile in New Lines Magazine by Neri Zilber in 2020 provided an insight into Dahlan’s rise and then his movement to exile: “After Arafat’s death in November 2004 and the election of Abbas as the new Palestinian president, Dahlan was given more powers, serving as Minister for Civil Affairs – effectively the main Palestinian interlocutor with Israel.

He resigned the post to run in the 2006 parliamentary elections, securing the top spot in the Khan Yunis district against a packed field of Fatah and Hamas candidates... People that know Dahlan – even his opponents – highlight his intelligence and cleverness. Nearing 60 but still youthful, clean shaven, with a strong helmet of black hair, he also looks the part of a modern Arab power player, dressing since his early days as Gaza’s security chief in finely tailored suits.”

How could Dahlan return?

How could Dahlan return? This is not entirely clear. The PA and Israel do not get along. The current Israeli government has no interest in seeing the PA run Gaza. The PA also doesn’t want to work with Israel. Hamas is also willing to kill anyone it thinks is “collaborating.”

In addition, Hamas has its sights set on taking over the West Bank. Having Dahlan move into a role relating to Gaza, with Hamas angling to take over PA institutions in Ramallah, could end up as a strange bait and switch, leaving a former PA strongman in charge of Gaza and Hamas riding into Ramallah to remove the aging oligarchic leadership of the PA.

There is a lot riding on what may happen in Gaza in the next several months. While Israel’s leadership says it has plans for the day after, those plans have not materialized so far, even on a small scale.Much work remains to be done. Dahlan is a name that rings out, but Gaza is a complex place. It requires a lot of investment to rebuild, and Hamas is waiting under the rubble to return.

Dahlan's response

In response to the circulation of this proposal in various media sites, Dahlan himself posted on X on Thursday that he would not take such a role.

"I have repeatedly refused to accept any security, governmental or executive role," he said.

He suggested that the scenarios presented were being used to "thrill audiences" and that his only involvement in Gaza would be providing relief alongside "generous and continuous support from our brothers in the United Arab Emirates throughout this ongoing dirty genocide."

"We strongly affirm that our highest priority now is to end the war," Dahlan stressed.

He strongly stated that he would not support any choice regarding the future of Gaza unless it was "based on Palestinian national understandings" which involved "rebuilding the Palestinian political system through a transparent democratic process."

Dahlan also said that such an international plan for Gaza would have to result in the culmination of establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.