With presidential tickets now set, which way are US Jews leaning? - analysis

Walking through the streets of New York, it’s impossible to ignore the emotional discussions happening in Jewish communities. In the kosher delis of Brooklyn, at Shabbat dinners on the Upper West Side, and even in the bustling markets of Queens, the upcoming presidential election is the hot topic. People are not just talking; they are passionately debating the candidates, their policies, and, most importantly, what this election means for Israel and the Jewish community in America.

A Siena College poll published this week shows Republican contender Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris among Jewish voters in New York by a margin of 50% to 49%. Despite this being well within the margin of error, it is a noteworthy shift for a state that has traditionally leaned toward the Democrats. Dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict appears to be a pivotal factor in this change.

Nationally, the picture is different. Harris maintains a narrow lead among Jewish voters, with 52.7% favoring her, compared to 45.9% for Trump, according to a survey conducted by pollster Richard Baris from July 28 to August 1, 2024.

This poll and others reveal a growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party among Jewish voters, likely influenced by recent geopolitical events and domestic policy concerns.

A Jewish Electoral Institute poll in early August shows Harris ahead by a 46% to 43% margin. This tighter race suggests that Harris still holds a lead, but it is not as comfortable as in previous elections. Similarly, the UMass Amherst poll from late July indicates Harris’s slight national lead, buoyed by support from younger voters, African Americans, and moderates.

The Orthodox vote

Orthodox Jewish voters, however, continue to show strong support for Trump, aligning closely with his policies on Israel. This consistent support highlights the significant divisions within the Jewish electorate. Historically, American Jews have leaned heavily Democratic, with overwhelming support for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s increased support in 2020, particularly among Orthodox Jews, marked a turning point.

Looking back over the past two decades, Jewish voters in the United States have predominantly supported Democratic candidates. They showed significant backing for Obama and Clinton, but Trump’s growing support among Orthodox Jews in 2020 signaled a shift. This dynamic continues to evolve, making the Jewish vote a critical focus for both parties.

The focus on securing the Jewish vote will intensify as the election approaches. Both Trump and Harris will need to address the specific concerns of Jewish voters, from domestic policy issues to international relations, particularly regarding Israel.