Harris or Trump?: Jewish groups push and pull as US elections approach

This election cycle, Jewish political groups outspent and outworked their previous efforts in an attempt to shore up the Jewish vote in the seven most critical battleground states.

The Republican Jewish Coalition argued this election cycle, it had the best Jewish voter file in politics after heavy investment in its data and modeling systems, allowing for a micro-targeted outreach.

“Back in the day, if you knocked on 100 doors, you were lucky if maybe 10 or 20 of them were actually Jewish,” RJC spokesperson Sam Markstein told The Jerusalem Post. “Nowadays, with our data system, you’re able to go to those same 100 doors, and 80 or 90 are actually Jewish.”

With days until Election Day, the coalition also touted the “more than 100 former Democrats” who joined its Victory Team volunteer ranks to phone bank and canvas for former President Donald Trump and down-ballot candidates across the battleground states with “thousands” of RJC Victory Team volunteers across the country.

Now, Markstein said the coalition is trying to make sure that its supporters and voters they’ve identified and persuaded over the past year will vote.

“That’s how we’re going to be measuring success,” he said.

In September, RJC predicted 30% of the national Jewish vote going to former president Donald Trump, with almost 50% of the Jewish vote going to Trump in the battleground states.

A survey released this week from the Jewish People Policy Institute found 63% of Jews expressing intent to vote for Harris. While that 63% represents the lowest Democratic support in four decades, Harris still retains the majority of Jewish support, with only 24% of American Jews planning to vote for Trump.

Conflicting polls over the summer and in the fall showed Harris winning the Jewish vote in the battleground states by varying margins.  

Awaiting voter demographic

However, it could take weeks or months before voter demographic data becomes publicly available.

Since Harris became the nominee, RJC’s allocated its record-breaking $15 million advertising budget to lure lifelong Democrats away from their party by linking Harris to the furthest left flanks of the Democratic Party and holding her responsible for Hamas’s attack on Israel due to her backing of the Iran nuclear deal.

Another RJC Victory Fund ad portrayed Trump as the best president for Israel and Jewish Americans.

The Jewish Democratic Coalition of America (JDCA) also broke its own records this year with 2.3 million direct voter contacts, whether by text, call, or in-person door-to-door canvassing.

JDCA CEO Halie Soifer’s goal was making 2 million voter contacts. In the 2022 midterms, JDCA made 1.6 million direct voter contacts.

“Our staff is larger than ever before. Our organization is larger, so that allowed us to reach a higher goal,” she said.

JDCA has also had 1,500 volunteers and 50,000 participants in virtual and in-person events, a demonstration Soifer said of the excitement and momentum since Harris became the candidate.

“We didn’t see this level of excitement and the surge of interest and participation and volunteers earlier this year,” she said. “We definitely saw a change in late July and August and certainly after the convention.”

Soifer also noted that more people have shown up to canvas than she’s expected.

“Our staff is larger than ever before. Our organization is larger, so that allowed us to reach a higher goal,” she said.

JDCA’s ads have focused on proving Harris’s track record fighting antisemitism and commitment to Israel and that Harris and Walz are “champions of Jewish American values.”

JDCA also released an ad linking Trump to dictators and fascists like Hitler, Putin, and Kim Jong Un.

Perhaps JDCA’s most tongue-in-cheek ad showed a woman seeking medical care to “have her head examined” because she’s voting Democrat, a play against Trump’s frequent quip that any Jew who votes for Harris should have their head examined.