Turkey blocking Sweden from NATO continues to cause chaos

Turkey has continued to threaten NATO allies and continues to try to divide the alliance in an effort to prevent Sweden from joining.

Last year, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden and Finland decided to join NATO. It would seem natural to have two western democracies join an alliance system rooted in the West which unites many democracies. However, in recent years, Turkey’s membership of NATO has led to a problematic quagmire. Ankara has grown closer to Russia and Iran and has become more authoritarian. Today the authoritarian regime holds the keys to NATO because it alone seeks to block Sweden and Finland from joining.

At the same time, Turkey is demanding the US sell its F-16s, even as it threatens to invade Syria and attack US partner forces there. In the last week, Ankara’s ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened the US regarding the F-16s. Meanwhile, Turkey is heading towards elections, leading the ruling party to increase tensions with Sweden.  

The latest news is that Ankara is trying to divide Finland and Sweden, hinting it might let Finland join. Ankara is enjoying this spotlight where democracies have to beg an authoritarian regime to join a western alliance. It poses as the controller of NATO, with all the trappings of the old Ottoman Empire, pretending it runs Europe’s security.

Meanwhile, Ankara also talks up a new “energy hub” deal with Russia. NATO members are afraid to challenge Turkey for fears it will forever put on hold NATO expansion and will work more closely with Russia. This is creating foreign policy chaos and enabling Russia to have more control over NATO than in the past. 

Another feature of this Russian role over NATO, via Turkey, is that Russia has inroads with some of the far-right in Europe. One of the claims Turkey has made regarding Sweden’s attempt to join NATO is that it is offended because a far-right activist burned a Quran in Sweden. However, some reports have asserted Russia may be helping stoke these tensions.

New developments - are they completely out of left field?

Why would the Quran burning have happened suddenly this year, right after Ankara had claimed it wanted Sweden to extradite dissidents?

Then there were the reports of the Quran burning and now Ankara’s ruling party is using this in its upcoming elections. Ankara has used claims of “Islamophobia” in the past to get votes. After a massacre at a New Zealand mosque, Ankara’s ruling AKP party had used video from the massacre to stoke tensions. This is how the ruling party stays in power, it creates fake crises with the US, Greece, New Zealand, Sweden, France, Israel and other countries, to get votes. It also threatens new invasions of Syria and creates tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.  

The continuing chaos caused by Ankara’s anti-Sweden campaign is causing problems in NATO and harming the alliance’s unity against Russia. This serves Moscow’s interests. In the next few months, it will be interesting to see if the chaos continues.