Iran warns Israel against Caucasus presence, Azerbaijan ties - analysis

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned Israel against a “presence” in the Caucasus during a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara this week.

This is only the most recent of a number of comments from the Iranian regime that sought to spotlight Israel’s close ties with Azerbaijan, as well as being part of a pattern of reports in which Tehran warned Jerusalem against a role in the Caucasus, an area that borders northern Iran.

Iran International, a pro-opposition media group based in London reported earlier this week that “Azerbaijan is to allow Israel to use its airfields in case of a possible attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of their military cooperation.” Middle East Monitor, which tends to be critical of Israel, also reported that Israel sent flights “loaded with weapons” to the South Caucasus country.

Israel sent flights “loaded with weapons” to Azerbaijan

That report noted that Baku’s defense concerns are what led to the flights. Israeli weapons played an important role when fighting against Armenia restarted in the four-day war between the countries in April 2016 and especially during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Al-Monitor also reported about the arms trade this week.

These reports go back several years. An article at Middle East Institute in October 2021 noted that “the official Iranian narrative is that Baku has given Israel ample operational freedom to use Azerbaijani soil to stage operations deep inside Iran. The latest charge from Tehran is that Israel’s theft of droves of sensitive nuclear files in 2018 involved the use of Azerbaijan as a staging ground for an operation that humiliated Iran’s leadership and intelligence services.”

The report added that “this time around, however, Tehran seems to be doubly apprehensive. It sees Israel intensifying its efforts to move closer to the Iranian homeland as a way of pressuring Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned all of Iran’s neighbors against what he called ‘interference of foreigners in the region’ as a ‘source of discord and damage.’ In a direct jab at Baku, Khamenei promised retribution to those neighboring states that collaborate with the Israelis.”

In December, Haaretz reported that “Following Azerbaijan’s announcement that it is opening an embassy in Tel Aviv, the country’s ambassador to the US tells Haaretz that Israel’s new government will have no effect on relations – and that their ties will have no impact on UN votes.” Pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media re-reported this story, reflecting Iran’s interest in the issue. 

In January, UAE-based The National ran an op-ed saying that “not only did Tehran wake up to a deeper Israeli and Turkish footprint on its northern border but Russia’s inability to keep Turkey and Israel out of the South Caucasus was probably the bigger shock to Tehran.”

In February, The Washington Post made a similar claim: “Azerbaijan and Iran – majority Shi’ite Muslim countries that share strong ethnic and linguistic ties and centuries of history – saw the worst escalation in their tense relations in January when the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran came under an armed attack. That followed Iran’s military buildup on its border with Azerbaijan in a dispute between the neighbors over Israel.”

Iran has increased its rhetoric again

IRAN HAS increased its rhetoric about what it describes as “foreign forces” in the Caucasus region as well, particularly through messages out of its foreign ministry. The Islamic Republic says it supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and “this approach is the permanent policy of Iran,” Amir-Abdollahian said in a telephone conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov in October 2022.

Tehran’s rhetoric comes amid rising Israel-Iran tensions and Iran’s enriching uranium beyond 84% amid concerns about its potential for weaponizing its nuclear program, which could lead to Iran’s “breakout” to become a threshold or actual nuclear power.

In the past, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have made claims about Israel operating from Azerbaijan and Iran, often accusing the Kurdistan autonomous region in Iraq of being a place where Israel has operated. This shows how Iran’s increasing rhetoric seeks to target the Kurdish autonomous region and also neighboring Azerbaijan.

The decision to increase the accusations in meetings with the Turkish foreign minister in Ankara shows how Iran is increasingly concerned about this issue. The comments also took place in advance of a meeting that Turkey, Iran and Russia will have next week where diplomats from the three countries will hold talks.