What's behind Russian jet attacks on US drones in Syria? - analysis

In recent days reports have emerged that Russia is increasing its aggressive behavior against US unmanned aerial vehicles in Syria.

Essentially, this is an outgrowth of Russia’s decision to increase its aggressive behavior across Syria when it comes to harassing US forces and aircraft. The US generally operates in eastern Syria, however, Russia has now decided to intercept US drones that fly over northwest Syria, an area Turkey occupies.  

It's important to understand what is going on here. Russia is increasing its harassment of US aircraft in Syria at the same time as the Ukraine offensive is continuing against Russia’s invasion. In addition, Russia is seeing more Western weapons flood into Ukraine, including reports that the US may sign off on delivering cluster munitions this week. Russia may see Syria as the soft underbelly of US policy, a place it can choose not to “deconflict” with the US, but rather to increase the tempo of interactions.  

Last month US Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewish discussed air operations and coordination in the Middle East and provided insight into recent Russian aggression against American forces in Syria.  He said at the time the US was sending advanced F-22 air superiority fighter jets to the region. He also said, “We had the incident recently in the Black Sea, where a Russian fighter flying really unprofessional maneuvers actually hit an MQ-9 aircraft.

“Russians will fly directly overhead or very near to these [US] garrisons [in Syria] with air-to-ground munitions – with bombs on board.” Russia was increasing incursions into airspace where the US operates up to several times a day. There is also a growing connection between Russia and Iran.  

Russian jets harassing American drones

A video shows Russian fighter jets harassing US drones in northwest Syria. CNN showed the video on July 5. A day earlier, three Russian fighter jets had also flown close to three US MQ-9 Reaper drones. The Russians dropped small parachutes near the drones and lit an afterburner near a drone. Russia has also conducted similar activities against French fighter jets near Syria, a CNN report. 

According to the US, the drones were conducting a mission against ISIS. The US continues to carry out anti-ISIS operations in Syria and this is the reason US forces are in Syria. The US generally operates in eastern Syria with the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Idlib or northwest Syria is more complex. That area is controlled by extremist groups, some of them linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib. Others are linked to Turkish-backed proxies. Both groups suppress the civilian population and persecute Kurdish and other minorities. However, this area of Syria is also where many displaced Syrians moved to flee the Syrian regime.

Turkey invaded parts of this region beginning in 2016. Therefore the area is a patchwork of groups and Turkish outposts. In the past, ISIS members and Al Qaida-linked extremists have been found living in northwest Syria, apparently sheltered by the extremists.  

When the US sends three Reaper drones to fly around Idlib province, it may be to seek to monitor extremists, but Russia likely sees these as easy pickings. Drones such as the Reaper do not fly very fast compared to modern fighter jets, and they lack air-to-air missiles and other systems that would help them warn off fighters. In short, the drone was not built for Top Gun style combat. It was built to monitor terrorists in uncontested airspace, an outgrowth of the Predator’s work in the late 1990s and early 2000s.  

According to the CNN report, “On Thursday, a US MQ-9 Reaper drone was conducting a mission against ISIS targets in northwest Syria when Russian fighter jets approached, Air Force Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich said in a statement about the incident.

One of the Russian jets then began dropping flares in front of the US drone in an apparent attempt to hit the drone, forcing it to take evasive maneuvers.” Russia used an SU-35.  “These events represent another example of unprofessional and unsafe actions by Russian air forces operating in Syria, which threaten the safety of both Coalition and Russian forces,” Grynkewich said in a statement. “We urge Russian forces in Syria to cease this reckless behavior and adhere to the standards of behavior expected of a professional air force so we can resume our focus on the enduring defeat of ISIS.” 

The SU-35 has a top speed of some 2,300km/hr or Mach 2. The Reaper by contrast has a top speed of around 480 km/hr. In essence, this means that the Reaper has the top speed of a WWII fighter plane, while the Russian jet, built originally in the 1980s, is a modern jet that can do circles around it. In March 2023 a Russian Su-27 jet intercepted and damaged a US Reaper over the Black Sea, causing it to crash. Russia has a history of deploying armed fighter jets against drones. In 2008 over Georgia Russian MiG-29s shot down several drones.