Erdogan arrives for Putin talks in Sochi

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Sochi on Monday. The visit is important for the Turkish and Russian leaders. According to Russian statement Erdogan arrived after noon  

The main topic of the consultations will be the grain deal, Russia’s TASS state media says. 

According to Turkey’s pro-government Daily Sabah the meeting will include “comprehensive discussions on Turkish-Russian relations in a one-day visit.” The Russian leader invited Erdogan. Putin has sometimes appeared isolated in the wake of the invasion of the war in Ukraine last year.

Nevertheless Moscow and Ankara enjoy warm relations. Turkey has successfully kept positive ties with Kyiv and Moscow, despite the war. It has also brokered an important grain export deal that enabled exports from Ukraine. This help reduce the fears of food insecurity in the wake of the invasion. However, the deal was recently cancelled by Russia.  

Turkish media says that Erdogan’s visit comes a month after Moscow suspended the deal. Turkey "spearheads efforts to patch up the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which got grain and other food to Africa, the Middle East and Asia where hunger is a growing threat. It was the main sponsor of the UN-backed agreement secured in July 2022, using its good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv to help strike the only major deal reached by the sides,” Daily Sabah said.  

Attacks on Ukrainian ports

Russia has appeared ready to strike at ships that seek to enter Ukrainian ports and has also used drones to attack Ukrainian ports such as Odesa and also ports on the Danube. These attacks continued up until the eve of Erdogan arriving.  

In August 2022 the two leaders met. Radio Free Europe reported at the time that “Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed during a meeting on August 5 to boost cooperation in the transport, agriculture, and construction industries.”  

The Kremlin said “despite the current regional and global challenges, the leaders reaffirmed their common will to further develop Russian-Turkish relations.” 

Putin and Erdogan have used the Sochi format of meetings in the past to discuss other game changing issues. In 2019 they discussed a deal in Syria. Turkey at the time had launched an operation attacking the US-backed SDF. Russia and the Syrian regime helped to end the fighting and both Moscow and Ankara came to an agreement.

This is important because fighting has flared in Syria again this week. Russia carried out airstrikes against Syrian groups that are linked to Turkey. Turkey encouraged those groups to attack the SDF and Turkey carries out drone strikes. As such the Sochi meeting may go beyond Ukraine discussions.  

Ukraine also appears to be replacing its defense minister amid a stalled offensive. The new minister is reported to be Rustem Umerov. Umerov has origins in Crimea, although he was born in Uzbekistan. As such he may focus on Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. This would create increasing tensions with Moscow and could setback any grain deal.