Irregular migration to Italy dramatically decreases as migrants accumulate in Tunisia

Italy has experienced a significant decrease in arrivals from Africa following the launch of a partnership with Tunisia meant to reduce migration from the northern African nation. As a result of the agreement, about 15,000 migrants are estimated to be stuck in Tunisia, according to the UN’s migration organization.

In the past several years, Tunisia has become the main transit hub for immigrants from northwestern and sub-Saharan Africa attempting to enter Europe. In April, Italy and Tunisia agreed on a plan to mitigate irregular migration, which has been a foreign policy priority for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. As part of the agreement, Italy committed in April to providing 105 million euros ($113 million) in financial aid and credit lines to Tunisia.

Mario Savina, a North Africa researcher at the Sapienza University of Rome and an analyst at OSMED Istituto S. Pio V., told The Media Line that 60% fewer irregular migrants have arrived in Italy in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

More migrants are now arriving from Libya rather than Tunisia, he said.

According to Riccardo Fabiani, project director for North Africa at the International Crisis Group, it is still too early to say whether Italy’s strategy to reduce irregular migration is succeeding.

“This could be a temporary respite, or migration flows could simply move to another country,” Fabiani told The Media Line. He noted that many factors, including transit, border management, and weather, affect rates of migration.

Italy's new strategy 

What distinguishes Rome’s new strategy from that of most other European countries is the official partnership that was extended to Tunisia, Fabiani said.

Tunisian President Kais Saied “is a manifestly xenophobic leader, so reinforcing the cooperation on migration means empowering a type of political authority different from the ones European governments have traditionally dealt with,” Fabiani said. He warned of potential consequences of the partnership in terms of human rights violations and security.

Given the ongoing economic and social crises in Tunisia, Saied is motivated to seek partnership with other countries, Savina said. In 2023, Saied rejected a $1.9 billion bailout deal from the International Monetary Fund, claiming that the reforms mandated by the deal amounted to “foreign diktats.” Tunisia is increasingly reliant on aid packages and loans from partner countries such as Italy and Algeria and from the European Union.

Most of the irregular migrants who arrive in Tunisia are unable to reach Europe and lack the means to return to their home countries. Many have settled in makeshift refugee camps near Sfax, a port city located about 170 miles southeast of Tunis, Tunisia’s capital city.

Many migrants try to stay in Tunisia and wait for an opportunity to leave for Europe, but they often end up arrested or deported to neighboring countries, Fabiani said.

“The conditions are often extremely difficult,” he continued. “These migrants undergo violence, and they are at times deported to desert areas with no access to food, water, and shelter. They then have to make their way to a nearby village or town on their own, with no support or means of transportation.”

He said that President Saied’s antimigrant rhetoric remains harsh and noted that violence against migrants has been steadily increasing, both at the hands of the police and at the hands of increasingly xenophobic civilian groups.

“This antimigrant campaign is supported by the president, who rejects their presence while de facto playing the role of security agent for Europe,” Fabiani said.

In the long term, Fabiani warned, the increase in violence may spill over into other sectors of society and spread across Tunisia.