Netanyahu's high-stakes Washington visit: Two weakened leaders to meet

Gone are the days when the gaps between some of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trips to Washington could be measured in months: 10 months between visits in 2009-2010, the same amount of time in 2011-2012, seven months in 2014, and nine months in 2019.

Now, the gaps extend for years.

The difference is not insignificant. When the Israeli prime minister comes to Washington every nine, 10, or 11 months, it sends a message of closeness and intimacy not lost on friends and foes. 

However, when these visits are fewer and much farther between, that also sends a message to friends and foes alike: of tension and diminished rapport.

When Israel’s newly minted official state plane – Wing of Zion – lands at Andrews Air Force Base in Washington DC in some two weeks after its maiden voyage carrying the prime minister, it will be Netanyahu’s first visit to the US capital in nearly four years. 

Even considering that for 18 months of this time he was not prime minister, it is still an unusually long time for him to be absent from the world’s most important capital.

Netanyahu will address a special joint session of Congress and, while in town, is expected to meet US President Joe Biden in the White House. Administration officials have said a visit is “likely.” Even though no formal invitation has been sent out, one is expected shortly.

The last time Netanyahu was in the White House was in September 2020. Donald Trump was the president, and the occasion was the signing of the Abraham Accords. 

Both Trump and Netanyahu lost elections shortly thereafter – Trump in November 2020 and Netanyahu in March 2021. By the time Netanyahu returned to office in December 2022, Biden was living in the White House and proved in no great hurry to invite the new/old Israeli prime minister to his residence for a chat.

The two met last September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting and again in October when Biden flew to Israel days after the horrors of October 7. 

But the lack of a Biden invitation for Netanyahu to drop by the White House for a meeting was a clear, oft-discussed, and much-fretted sign of the president’s disapproval of the prime minister, the current Israeli government, and its policies.

THAT WAS all back then, before the president’s disastrous debate last month with Trump, his predecessor and wanna-be successor.

In 2023, when Biden tarried in inviting Netanyahu, the president was politically potent, having emerged victorious from the midterm elections when an anticipated “red wave” that would sweep the Republicans to control both houses of Congress failed to materialize. 

On the other hand, Netanyahu – facing unprecedented opposition to his judicial overhaul plan – was politically weak.

A drastic shift since the last visit 

Now, however, the dynamics have shifted. Both leaders are weak, and both are facing loud calls to step aside – Biden from within his own party and Netanyahu, if not yet from within his party, at least from an increasingly vociferous street.

And it is precisely because both leaders are politically weak that a White House meeting in two weeks could benefit them both.

First, regarding Netanyahu: Ever since he accepted an invitation last month extended by the leadership of both parties in Congress to address a special joint session, there has been a public debate here about whether he should accept – and that was even before it was known whether he would get an invitation to meet Biden.

By the way, such an invitation to meet the president is not a given. For instance, when Netanyahu addressed Congress in 2015, then-president Barack Obama was angered that Netanyahu was speaking to Congress against the Iranian nuclear deal that he brokered and refused to meet him.

Arguments against Netanyahu accepting the invitation to address Congress included that such a visit – because it was initiated by Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and clearly not something the White House or Democrats relished – would only highlight partisan divisions on Israel. 

More than that, since dozens of Democratic legislators will certainly absent themselves from the speech, it will also underline deep divisions over Israel within the Democratic Party itself – not something that is in Israel’s interest to spotlight.

Then there is the timing itself. Coming between the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19, there will be those who will accuse Netanyahu of again trying to meddle in US politics, which could further strain his relationship with the Biden administration and the Democrats.

Now that a meeting with Biden is expected, it remains to be seen whether a meeting with Trump will also be arranged – and how that will play out. 

It is not unusual for prime ministers to meet both candidates during trips to the US, as Netanyahu did when he met both Hillary Clinton and Trump in the Fall of 2016 before the elections that year. 

Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s doing so now will be presented by many as an interference in US domestic politics.

A MEETING with Trump will also place Netanyahu in a position where the unpredictable Republican presumptive nominee might encourage Netanyahu to take sides.

This happened once before: just two weeks before the 2020 election when the president spoke with the prime minister by phone after it was announced that Sudan would become the third state to normalize ties with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords.

“Do you think Sleepy Joe could have made this deal, Bibi? Sleepy Joe? I think – do you think he would have made this deal somehow? I don’t think so,” Trump said. Netanyahu diplomatically sidestepped, and – according to a report in Politico at the time – “The smile on the president’s face faded as he listened to the prime minister’s response. 

‘Yeah,’ Trump interjected, gesturing toward a member of the White House press corps to ask a question.”

From an Israeli viewpoint, the timing of this trip to Washington also raises eyebrows. In the middle of one war in Gaza and on the cusp of another, larger war in Lebanon – with hostages still languishing in Hamas captivity – is this the time for the prime minister to leave the country?

From day one, however, it was clear that Netanyahu would take advantage of this opportunity. Are there risks? Certainly. But Netanyahu, not known for lacking confidence in his own abilities, believes the benefits outweigh the risks.

WHAT ARE the benefits of delivering a speech to Congress? First, it gives Netanyahu a tremendous platform to present Israel’s perspective on numerous issues. If he wishes, he could lay out his vision for Gaza after the war, dwell on Iran’s malign designs, or even discuss a possible regional arrangement that includes Saudi Arabia. With the hostage negotiations moving ahead, it may be the platform where he announces a potential deal.

Will some legislators boycott or walk out? Certainly, but many more will remain in their seats – sure to stand and applaud throughout – and the speech will give Netanyahu the chance to shape their thinking on these issues.

Likewise, the speech – and the expected meeting with Biden – will generate much media coverage. 

On the one hand, the media will focus on the lawmakers who boycotted the speech and highlight the tensions between Washington and Jerusalem over the war and how it is being waged. 

Yet, on the other hand, this coverage will also give Netanyahu a chance to explain and shape perceptions of Israel’s policies and actions. He is not one to pass up on an opportunity like that.

Then there is the potential domestic benefit for Netanyahu to consider. Strutting on the world stage has always been Netanyahu’s strength, and has played well at home. 

For years, he relished the role of world statesman, as comfortable and at home speaking with the US president as with the presidents of Russia and China or the prime minister of India. 

He has lost that aura since returning to office in December 2022, especially since October 7. This trip might enable him to regain a piece of that.

This would be the case were Netanyahu just going to deliver a speech to Congress – an expected meeting with Biden now adds an additional bonus. 

This meeting will allow him to project to his domestic base that he can still maintain strong ties with the country’s most important ally. 

Further, if he is seen as standing up to strong US pressure – either regarding the war aims or when the conversation turns to a “two-state solution” – then it will give him a further political boost.

Netanyahu’s “lecture” to Obama in the White House in May 2011 on Jewish and Mideast history, following the president’s declaration of the 1967 lines with land swaps as the baseline for future agreements, bolstered the prime minister’s image among many Israelis, even as it won him no friends in the White House. Israelis appreciated Netanyahu standing up to a president many of them perceived as dealing unfairly with Israel.

 Netanyahu successfully employed this tactic against a strong and popular US president. Now, with Biden politically weakened and his status as the Democratic nominee uncertain, Netanyahu faces less diplomatic risk in firmly opposing Biden’s demands and pressure. 

Such a stance will likely yield political benefits with his base at home while potentially carrying fewer consequences due to Biden’s current vulnerability.

BIDEN AND his advisers are also undoubtedly aware of this, which is why they are unlikely to publicly press Netanyahu too hard or highlight their differences. 

At this point, the president has little political gain from doing so. Biden is politically in trouble, running behind Trump in nearly all the post-debate polls and, most importantly, in six of the seven key battleground states he needs to win to retain the White House.

While earlier in the year, Biden’s policies of walking back some of his earlier, steadfast support for Israel seemed designed to appease progressives and Arab Americans unhappy with this support, his willingness to wave his support of Israel high during his recent debate with Trump indicates there has been a change in tactics: Support for Israel is something he wants to showcase, not hide. Four months before an election is not the time to publicly butt heads with Netanyahu.

And then there is the age issue and the question of whether – at 81 – Biden is up to the job. Both the domestic and international media will closely scrutinize his planned meeting with Netanyahu. 

As such, it will be another chance for the president to demonstrate his mental acuity. It may also be a chance for him to show that he is not a pushover.

 It’s no coincidence that Biden’s handlers, trying to assuage concerns over his mental capabilities, highlighted the president’s conversation with Netanyahu in April as a sign that Biden was still with it and very much in charge. The New York Times reported that Biden firmly made it clear to Netanyahu that the US opposed a fierce Israeli counterattack.

“Let me be crystal clear,” Biden reportedly said. “If you launch a big attack on Iran, you’re on your own.”

Since both leaders are now politically weak, when they meet, they may use the other as a foil to appear strong and resolute to their constituents: Netanyahu seeking to reassert his statesmanship and Biden aiming to demonstrate his leadership abilities and mental acumen.