Will a new conservative-led government in Austria keep pro-Israel policy? - analysis

For the first time in the history of the post-WWII Austrian republic, the party that won the general election has not been commissioned to form and head the new Austrian government.

Three weeks after the general election and following two rounds of consultations with the leaders of the three main parties – the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), the Conservative People’s Party (ÖVP), and the Social-Democratic Party (SPÖ) – Austria’s President Alexander Van der Bellen announced that he asked the ÖVP leader – outgoing Chancellor Karl Nehammer – to lead negotiations for the constitution of a new government.

The ÖVP came second to the far-right FPÖ at the election of September 29, losing more than 11% of the votes that it had five years ago.

Van der Bellen asked Nehammer to explore ways to form a government with the Social Democrats, who registered the worst result in their history in the election. The ÖVP has 51 seats in the newly-elected parliament; the SPÖ 41. Together, both parties could have an unstable majority of 1 seat in the 183-seat-parliament. They would probably look for a third coalition partner, the liberal “Neos” or the Greens.

Van der Bellen explained that he had to break with the political tradition of asking the winning party to form a new government because all the other parties refused to form a coalition with the Freedom Party under the leadership of its chairman Herbert Kickl. On the other side of the aisle, the FPÖ refused to sit in a government not headed by Kickl.

Van der Bellen noted that the reasons for the other parties’ refusal were concerns that the far-right party would harm democracy and the rule of law in the country, along with concerns regarding its Russian links, ties to extreme right-wing elements, and the potential damages to Austria’s international reputation that will weaken its economic position.

Austria’s economy is facing some of the biggest challenges it has in decades. The FPÖ has already named a government that would be formed without it “the coalition of losers” and has sworn to be a “fighting opposition” to such a government.

If Nehammer does manage to form a government with the Social Democrats and a third partner, this would set another political precedent. Since WWII, most of Austria’s 34 governments were comprised of one or two parties.

If the SPÖ joins a government led by the conservatives, upholding tradition, the Social Democrats – who have been in the opposition for the last seven years – will get the positions of Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister. If the current SPÖ leader Andreas Babler is nominated as Foreign Minister, it could negatively influence the very pro-Israel policy Austria had under recent conservative-led governments, a policy initiated by the former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and followed by his successors.

In the past, Babler held extreme pro-Palestinian positions and, as leader of the SPÖ’s youth movement, participated in political events that hailed the Second Intifada. Since he was elected to lead the SPÖ, Babler avoided any pro-Palestinian declarations and even participated in a commemoration of the October 7 massacre organized by the Austrian Jewish community two weeks ago.

Mounting pressure

However, within the SPÖ’s Left, which Babler leads, there is mounting pressure to break with the pro-Israel “Kurz Legacy” and renew with the late Jewish chancellor Bruno Kreisky’s legacy of pro-Palestinian and pro-Arab “neutrality.”

If he is serious about standing by Israel’s side, Nehammer will have to show the way to his potential Social-Democratic partners. His time as chancellor proved that he, too, was a very close friend of Israel.