Optimism and anxiety: Arabs hope for change under Trump’s leadership

Significant optimism has emerged across the Arab world following former US President Donald Trump’s reelection, with many officials hopeful that his second term will address longstanding regional challenges. Iran and its allied Iraqi militias, on the other hand, expressed concern about the potential reinstatement of US sanctions, which targeted many of their leaders during Trump’s first term.

Iran has publicly dismissed the significance of the US election results, with state media reporting that there is “no big difference” between the candidates. “The general policies of the US and Iran have not changed” following the election, Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said.

Iranian-backed militias and political factions in Iraq declared Trump “wanted” for his role in ordering the 2020 assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Forces leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The militias also warned that those celebrating Trump’s victory would face punishment.

Reactions to the news were mixed across the Arab world. Gulf states largely view Trump’s presidency as a potential solution to regional crises. Sunni religious groups, on the other hand, including the Muslim Brotherhood, expressed fears that the perceived opportunities offered by previous Democratic administrations would be replaced by suppression. 

Speaking at the Gateway Gulf economic forum in Bahrain days before the US elections, Bahrain’s Finance and National Economy Minister, Salman bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, highlighted the long history of US-Bahrain cooperation. “In the Kingdom of Bahrain, as you know, we established a free trade agreement with the United States many years ago, and our relationship with the US dates back to the late 19th century, with strategic military cooperation beginning at the end of World War II,” Al Khalifa said.

At the same forum, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid A. Al-Falih remarked, “The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States has always been stable and growing. Regardless of which US administration is in power, we have agreements and a strong strategic relationship spanning several decades.”

These nonpartisan public remarks would suggest that both candidates would be equally satisfactory to Gulf leaders. However, a Gulf official who asked to remain anonymous told The Media Line that “all the Gulf countries” would prefer to deal with Trump. 

“He is a very straightforward official and has nothing to hide,” the official said. “When you sit with him, he speaks very frankly; there are no hidden matters, and when he speaks frankly, you can reach an agreement with him, but if someone does not speak frankly, you cannot trust him.”

Military implications

Many experts in the Arab world predict that Trump’s policies will bring an end to the fighting between Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon and contribute to an economic recovery, particularly in the oil sector.

They also expect Trump to expand the Abraham Accords, the normalization deals signed between Israel and four Arab countries during Trump’s first term.

“Now we will see an end to the bloodshed in the Middle East,” Bassem Al-Khazraji, an Iraqi politician, told TML. “The first step was the dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, which will end this conflict in Palestine, Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and even Iran and Iraq.”

Al-Khazraji said that “some airstrikes” may continue in order to weaken Iran, after which the overall conflict will come to an end. “The Trump Administration will then begin the reconstruction phase, and the Abraham Accords will expand with several countries, including Gulf and Arab states, but Iraq, Kuwait, and Algeria may be the last countries to sign these agreements, and we may see the declaration of the state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital,” he continued. 

Saudi journalist Saud Al-Muqhim also expressed confidence that Trump would bring “all these wars and conflicts” to an end. 

“In the next two months, we will see a cessation of war in Gaza and Lebanon, these militias will end, and I personally expect a final agreement on Palestine,” Al-Muqhim told TML. “The cessation of wars must include the ongoing conflict in Sudan, and perhaps this will be possible with the cessation of all other conflicts in the world.”

Omar Kaabneh, a Jordanian journalist, agreed that Trump would establish a Palestinian state—but only after eliminating Hamas and other resistance groups, he said. “It will be headed by whoever he wants, not whoever the Palestinian people want,” Kaabneh told TML.

He predicted that Israel would try to escalate the conflict in the months before Trump takes office.

Expanding the Abraham Accords

Like Al-Khazraji, Saudi writer Abdulrazzaq Al-Mohammadi said that Trump’s second term would bring about an expansion of the Abraham Accords. 

“Perhaps Trump will be a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Israel and will reach an agreement on the Saudi conditions for establishing a Palestinian state before any peace talks with Israel, and if this agreement is reached, a peace agreement will be possible,” Al-Mohammadi told TML.

Hisham Al-Quraini, a Yemeni politician based in Britain, said the countries that made peace with Israel during Trump’s last presidency now have shaky relationships with Israel due to the ongoing war. “Trump must work to restore them before he embarks on new agreements,” he told TML. 

Al-Quraini said that Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, and Yemen will likely reject the idea of normalizing relations with Israel. “We may see agreements with Tunisia or Lebanon and perhaps Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the Sultanate of Oman,” he noted. 

Former Iraqi officer Ali al-Askar said that Trump would likely put pressure on Iraq to join the Abraham Accords. “Iraq will not enter, and there may be understandings regarding the Iranian militias in Iraq,” he told TML. “But we will witness how Iraq moves towards more stability.”

Economic impact

Abbas al-Jubouri, an Iraqi economic analyst, told TML that Trump will not push for reduced oil production or increased reliance on alternative energy, resulting in lower oil prices. 

“Trump will impose sanctions on Iran, the problems of foreign currency shortages, and the dollar in Iraq will return again, and we may see the collapse of the Iraqi currency against the dollar,” al-Jubouri said.

He said that Gulf countries will benefit economically from Trump’s election. “Even his trade war with China will be in the interest of the world,” al-Jubouri said. “China will increase its exports to the countries of the world and move away from the American market a little.”

Khalid Al-Ajlan, a Saudi economist, offered a similar analysis. 

“The Gulf countries benefited greatly from Trump’s presidency. There were pressures in the area of ​​oil prices, but there were many other areas to agree on economically,” Al-Ajlan told TML. 

He described Trump as a businessman who knows what he wants to achieve economically. 

“Trump will certainly have many solutions to these crises,” Al-Ajlan said. “We will wait and see.”