Houthis escalate tensions with US in Red Sea - analysis

The Iranian-backed Houthis have been doubling down on threats to America in the wake of the win of president-elect Donald Trump – their goal is to show that they are not deterred.

On Wednesday, the Houthi Al-Masirah media bragged about the importance of the terrorist group’s decision to target US naval ships in the Red Sea. This is not the first time they have grappled with US naval ships. However, the warning illustrates a shift in tactics – from targeting commercial ships to directly challenging the US Navy to a fight.

The Yemen-based terrorist group claimed to target aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, a guided-missile destroyer, and said they attacked the USS Stockdale and USS Spruance on Monday – both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. Washington has said it is unaware that the carrier was also targeted.

The Houthis used eight drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles in their attacks. They described these attacks as having important “dimensions” and “implications” and called them an illustration to the incoming Trump administration that this is a “furnace of an ongoing war.”

The Houthis know that Trump promised peace, and they are asserting that they can escalate, and that “powerful wars” could develop in the region that “contradict Trump’s promises to stop wars.” The group says its position against “hostile American ships and naval vessels indicates one fact: that position has not and will not change, as long as the aggression against Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen itself continues.”

Yemen's civil war

The Houthis also remember the reign of the first Trump administration from 2016 to 2020 and even back to the Obama administration. They attempted to take over in 2015 when Obama was in office. This was when the US was running into the arms of the Iran deal – and the Houthis used this as an excuse to improve their position in Yemen by trying to take Aden.

This forced Saudi Arabia to intervene in Yemen’s civil war, which led to years of war with the Houthis and increasing Iranian involvement: rushed drone and missile technology. Within a few years of the Saudi intervention, the Houthi drones and missiles were reaching into the kingdom. Eventually, a ceasefire was brokered, and the Biden administration sought to remove the Houthis from a list of terrorist groups, which proved to be a mistake because it empowered them instead.

THE HOUTHIS used their success in Yemen to be taken seriously among Iran’s other “axis” proxy groups. They reached out to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq, and by 2022, were ready to coordinate operations against Israel. Hamas launched its massacre attack on October 7, 2023, and the Houthis quickly began attacks on ships.

Iran’s goal here was to knit the Houthis into a large web of fronts against Israel, such that when Hamas pulled Israel into Gaza, the attacks from the other fronts would commence. In essence, this drew a string from Gaza to Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. When Hamas pulled the string, all the other groups – and the countries where they are territorially in control – got dragged in. Now, the region is at war, with Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Russia, and China all backing Hamas.

The Houthis do not believe Trump can solve the numerous conflicts in the region that link Yemen to Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Iraq. Their analysis is openly expressed in their media: “We have experience with Trump in Yemen, as well as in the entire region, and the result is that he did not resolve the fronts in Yemen and did not succeed in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Iraq.”

The group also mentioned US Sen. Marco Rubio as an example of someone they believe would not bring peace to the region. They said that both Democrats and Republicans don’t change on foreign policy that much. This is bluster because they likely know that American policies do change.

“With Tuesday’s military operation by the armed forces [against US naval ships], Sanaa [Houthis] confirms that it does not care about developments in the American arena as long as it remains a part and partner in the genocide of the people of Gaza and its efforts to liquidate the Palestinian cause,” Al-Masirah noted.

The same report said that the range of Houthi weapons is increasing and that they are prepared for a long-term battle with the US and its allies. The group even claimed it would soon be able to down US F-16s and could target F-35s, a likely reference to Israel since Jerusalem carried out airstrikes on the Houthis using those very jets.

THE HOUTHIS downed US Reaper drones in the past. Drones are easier to shoot down because they are slower than advanced fourth- or fifth-generation military aircraft, such as F-16s and F-35s. Drones also have no stealth capabilities and present a relatively large radar signature to air defense systems.

The terrorist group said that Trump is an “extremist president” who “leads a project and a bouquet of promises to Israel” and that they are conveying a message to Washington and Trump in the only language “that the Americans understand, which is the use of the element of force, but this time its impact will be great, as the commercial mentality of the next American president, as much as his Zionism and Nazism, will be like a brake on his madness, especially with the presence of the force that can stand in front of him as a barrier.”

This may sound like bluster, but the Houthis believe it. The group claims it tried to target Nahal Sorek south of Tel Aviv with a missile on Monday – this is an escalation. They also appear to be coordinating with Iraqi militias and Hezbollah in longer-range and more complex attacks, such as a drone attack targeting an area near Mitzpe Ramon this week and Hezbollah claiming on Wednesday that it targeted an Israeli base near Tel Aviv.