Russian opposition faces challenges as Navalny’s widow takes the helm

Following the July 2024 death of Russian opposition leader and political prisoner Alexei Navalny, the future of the opposition has been thrown into uncertainty. Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, has stepped up to continue her husband’s mission, but the movement is struggling to stay relevant. Amid mounting state repression from the Kremlin, Navalnaya and other opposition figures are seeking international alliances to support their cause. 

At last week’s Web Summit technology conference in Lisbon, Navalnaya took the stage to discuss the role of Western tech companies in aiding authoritarian regimes. Her speech was interrupted by Ukrainian activists protesting Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine. The protestors set off an air raid siren and chanted “Stop Russia” and “Stop the war,” prompting mixed reactions from the audience. 

Ukrainian activist Kristina Zhuk later took to social media to claim responsibility for the disruption. She thanked those who participated in the demonstration and emphasized that Russian citizens should expect such disruptions wherever they go.

Last Sunday, Navalnaya gave her first in-depth interview since her husband’s death, speaking with journalists from the independent Russian TV channel Dozhd. “I suppose I’m a politician, if that’s what people want to call me,” Navalnaya acknowledged. “I attend events, meet with world leaders, and discuss the political situation in Russia. At first, they offer their condolences, but then we get to work discussing how we can challenge [President Vladimir] Putin’s regime.” 

Navalnaya also addressed the speculation surrounding her potential presidential candidacy, stating, “I was asked if I would participate in elections, and I said yes. That’s all. The media took it from there. But yes, I have political ambitions, and if the opportunity arises, I will pursue leadership roles in Russia.”

Navalnaya faces significant obstacles to challenge Kremlin

Navalnaya and other leaders are striving to fill the void opened up by Navalny’s death, but they face significant obstacles as the Kremlin continues to tighten its grip on the opposition. These obstacles raise serious questions about the opposition’s ability to effectively challenge the Russian regime. 

Ian Matveev, a defense analyst and former member of Navalny’s team, expressed his support for Navalnaya while acknowledging the uncertainty regarding the opposition’s future.  

“As for Julia’s leadership, she is undoubtedly one of the key leaders of the Russian opposition today,” Matveev told The Media Line. “Moreover, she has unique opportunities—she communicates with world leaders at the highest level, including presidents and heads of state, as well as with Russian activists, politicians, and opinion leaders.”

He said that Navalnaya is both promoting change within Russian society and seeking international support for the Russian opposition. “I believe that in the near future, Julia will be the most prominent leader of the Russian opposition and will achieve significant results. As for her plans, I think she will share them herself when she feels the time is right,” he said.

Political scientist Leonid Goldenberg expressed skepticism about the future of the Russian opposition in general. 

“In Russian society, there’s no concept of power separation, and typically, in every structure, there is a rigid hierarchical system centered around one charismatic leader. This has been the way it was, and it remains so today,” he told The Media Line. “This is true for both the government and the opposition movements—everything is centered around one individual, and without that individual, everything falls apart.”

Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation has fallen apart in the months since his death, Goldenberg said. “They lost their ideological core. They lost their direction. Navalny was their figurehead, and without him, they started to erode ideologically. There was even an attempt to sanctify Navalny after his death, almost to canonize him, and I think that scared the Russian authorities a lot. That’s why we saw the mock pilgrimages to his grave. It’s tied to a Christian tradition—especially within Orthodox Christianity—to canonize people after their death,” he explained.

He described members of the opposition as “broken, destroyed people who can’t find their place in life anymore” following Navalny’s death. “They left Russia, but they are shattered, they are morally destroyed,” he said. “These people put everything into fighting Putin's regime, and the organizations left them behind. They are human assets, and they’ve been abandoned. It’s terrible. They sacrificed everything—their careers, their lives, their families—and the organizations they supported did nothing for them.”

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, over 700,000 Russians are estimated to have fled the country—seeking to escape conscription or persecution, or simply to find freedom. 

Goldenberg said that the Russian opposition is incapable of bringing about a democratic solution to the problems of the regime. 

“Imagine the first fair elections take place. Old systemic liberals from Putin's camp take 40%. Another 15% might go to some nationalist party, and the rest is opposition. Are the opposition leaders ready to sit with them in Parliament? What do they suggest—execute everyone? And what about the people who voted for them? The opposition has no answers to this. They make it seem like those who voted for Putin or systemic liberals simply don’t exist. But they do exist, and they are not some tiny minority. They genuinely support this system,” he said.

In countries like Israel and the US, Goldenberg said, opposing political parties manage to work together. “But in Russia, even among the opposition, this kind of coexistence is impossible,” he said. “They hate each other. Nothing will change after Putin’s death because, even if there are fair elections, the opposition will not be able to cooperate.”

He characterized the Russian opposition as less a political movement and more a religious sect promising a future paradise. “They make videos, hold meetings, propose ideas for post-war Russia, denying the existence of pro-Putin supporters or systemic liberals,” Goldenberg said. “They have rituals, gatherings, and a messianic vision of a future Russia, but lack practical solutions or the ability to address the people who aren’t already on their side.”