Hamas's 2024 New Year's rocket fire signals war not over - analysis

Hamas claimed responsibility for the rocket barrage fired at Israel that occurred just after midnight, as people were ringing in the New Year.

Hamas rocket fire had lessened last week, making this particular salvo symbolic and significant. The group has already lost northern Gaza, as well as parts of central Gaza and the Khan Yunis command center.

Despite this, Hamas showed it can still assemble a barrage of rockets. Pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media claimed that Hamas fired dozens of M-90 rockets, targeting Tel Aviv and central Israel. The attack was launched as the war approaches its 90th day, or third month, and was designed to show Hamas is not yet defeated, and that it will continue this war, regardless of Israel’s offensive.

The fight is far from over, report indicates

The Al-Mayadeen report also detailed Hamas’s refusal to back down from fighting Israeli forces, and that its air defense systems were used to try to target an IDF helicopter and drone. The reports, even if they exaggerate Hamas’s fighting abilities, are designed as a message to Israel and Hamas allies in Iran, as well as to the US, that the terrorist group is far from being defeated.

This may be simple boasting, but the group appears ready to transition to a new phase of war, an attempt to wear down Israeli forces in Gaza until they withdraw, without letting Israel achieve its stated objectives. Hamas leadership in Gaza is still intact, and it still holds almost 130 hostages, meaning that the terrorist group has been able to weather the first 90 days of war.

Hamas has done this in the past, as in Operation Cast Lead (2009), when it held on in southern Gaza, or Protective Edge (2014), when it waited for the IDF to leave Gaza after the IDF sought to demolish tunnels.

Hamas assumes this round will be the same. It may lose ground, but it will keep hold of something. All it has to do is withdraw what remains of its battalions and keep a key portion of fighters intact, not to mention any remaining hostages.

Hamas is succeeding in this endeavor and continues to possess some capacity to launch rockets. It may not have an easy time replenishing the rockets, as it has lost launch sites and some of the materials used to make rockets or fuel its war machine. However, Hamas still holds Rafah and other areas, as well as almost 2 million human shields to hide behind.