How meaningful is ‘operational control’ – if Hamas can still fire 30 rockets? - analysis

In November, the IDF announced that it had “operational control” of the core parts of Gaza City, including Shaati. How meaningful is “operational control” for the general Israeli public?

On December 19, the military announced operational control not just over core areas of Gaza City but also over Jabalya. Two days later, it said it had achieved the same level of control in Shejaia.

At that point, the IDF claimed to have such significant control over northern Gaza that the mostly reservist Division 252 could be released from duty. There was only one small, threatening area left to take over in northern Gaza: Daraj and Tuffah, with the presumption that these would be under control within a matter of weeks at most, if not sooner.

IDF actions to affect the public 

These practical control changes on the ground have real and quick consequences for the public.On Sunday, the IDF announced the release of two more reservist brigades and would likely release more on a rolling basis over the next few weeks. On Monday, it announced the start of a gradual return of residents to a few southern cities and towns. It also announced on Monday that, on average, its operational control of northern Gaza and its achievements in southern and central Gaza brought down rocket fire from hundreds per day to around 14 per day.

These are all outcomes of the IDF achieving a certain level of control in northern Gaza.However, many top defense officials told The Jerusalem Post that operational control would not prevent an occasional rocket or two from being fired. It also would not prevent small-scale disorganized hit-and-run attacks.

On Sunday, the IDF announced that it sniffed out the hiding place of some terrorists in Shaati in northern Gaza and that forces engaged in battle – with 14 terrorists. This doesn’t seem to quite add up to full operational control; at midnight of Sunday-Monday, Hamas fired almost 30 rockets towards central Israel – from Jabaliaa in northern Gaza.Thirty rockets constitute a barrage, not a rocket or two here or there, so how much is “operational control” really worth? If there are still big organized battles, barrages of rockets, and rockets fired toward central Israel, what has been achieved?

Last night's barrage of rockets – what does it mean?

The truth is that it is likely that even if the IDF overestimated its achievements, the battle with 14 terrorists and the barrage of almost 30 rockets last night will probably end up being seen as exceptions over the next week or so – not the rule; the average number of rockets on a day-to-day basis will likely continue to drop.

Incidents where there will be 14 terrorists fighting comprehensively against Israeli forces in northern Gaza or where rockets are fired in large numbers will probably be rare.

But the IDF now needs to prove this. There needs to now be several straight weeks where no big military threats come out of northern Gaza, in the sky, or on the ground. 

If the IDF can pull that off 80-90% of the time in the next few weeks, it will truly have achieved something, even if that something is not the full mission of ending Hamas as a threat.

If the exceptions happen too often, the public will have to question whether northern Gaza – let alone southern Gaza, which could be months away from operational control – is a success.