Japan's rocky road and balancing act with Israel during Hamas war

On October 7, as countries around the world began reacting to Hamas’s attack in the South, Japan’s statement struck experts in diplomatese following these matters closely as overly mild.

“Japan strongly condemns the launch of a number of rockets as well as infiltration into the Israeli territories from the Gaza Strip by Hamas and other Palestinian militants on October 7 local time,” the statement read.

“Japan offers its condolences to the bereaved families and expresses its heartfelt sympathies to the injured. Japan urges all the parties concerned to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid further damage and casualties.”

Huh? A small army of terrorists just invaded Israel, murdered entire families, hunted down concertgoers, kidnapped babies, raped women, and all the Japanese government could muster was to “strongly condemn,” balanced with a call for Israel to exercise maximum restraint?

Diplomatic officials in Jerusalem were, to put it gently, disappointed, and that disappointment was relayed to Tokyo.

But that initial reaction was telling of how Japan is trying to balance its relations with Israel and its near-total dependence on oil from the Middle East in calibrating the way it relates to the current war.

It wasn’t only officials in Jerusalem who were frustrated by the Japanese government’s initial reaction. Tomohiko Taniguchi worked from 2013 to 2020 as a top aid and chief foreign policy speechwriter to then-prime minister Shinzo Abe. Abe, along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, energized and, some would say, revolutionized Israel-Japanese ties. Taniguchi, too, rubbed his eyes when he read Tokyo’s initial reaction.

“The Japanese government’s initial response in the aftermath of the terror attack from Hamas was actually terrible,” he said in a Zoom interview from Tokyo. He noted that, unlike other Western nations, the statement did not say anything about Israel’s right to defend itself.

Japan also did not sign on to a G7 statement two days later issued by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Britain, and the US that expressed their steadfast and united support for Israel. “Our countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself and its people against such atrocities,” read that statement, which Japan – and Canada – were absent from.

Belatedly, however, Japan did catch up. On October 11, its foreign ministry issued another statement, following a meeting between Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Okano Masataka and Ambassador Gilad Cohen, saying that Japan stands in solidarity with Israel and recognizes that Israel has “a right to defend itself and its people in accordance with international law.”

That statement was a turning point.

Cohen, in an interview with The Jerusalem Post from Tokyo, said that he is “very pleased with the Japanese ongoing stance since the start of the war: standing by Israel, acknowledging our right to defend ourselves, calling for an unconditional and immediate release of our hostages, and designating Hamas as a terrorist organization.

“We thank the Japanese government for each position – they are on the right side of history.”

In recent days, Japan has also suspended funding to UNRWA, a significant step for the country, which has been one of the organization’s most prominent patrons since the 1950s.

Japan influenced by United States

Nissim Otmazgin, a Japan expert at the Hebrew University who is the dean of its humanities faculty, cited Japan’s initially very mild statement and noted that the tone in Tokyo changed and became much more clearly supportive of Israel after US President Joe Biden gave his strong pro-Israel speech on October 10.

The change in tone, he said, was “definitely because of the American factor.” Once it became clear where the Americans stood on the issue, Japan fell in line.

“The relationship with the United States is the most important thing for Japan’s foreign ministry,” he said. “It is out of that relationship that Japan’s relationship with Israel emerges. We have to look at Japan’s relationship with Israel as part of the wider relationship with the United States.”

Otmazgin said that Israel will need to lean into its relationship with the US to prevent a negative development in the Japanese-Israeli relationship that unfolded this week from snowballing: the announcement by Itochu, Japan’s mammoth trading and investment company, that it was severing its aviation unit’s strategic cooperation with Elbit Systems as a result of the war. Itochu was ranked 96 on the 2023 list of Fortune Global 500 companies.

The company connected its decision to sever ties with Elbit to the International Court of Justice’s call on Israel last month to prevent genocide against Palestinians and take all measures to limit death and destruction inside Gaza.

“The fear is that because of the war, Israel’s image as the Start-Up Nation will slowly fade away and Japanese companies will start withdrawing from the Israeli market,” Otmazgin said, terming Itochu’s move as “very unfortunate.” He said the concern is that other companies might follow suit because “companies in Japan are afraid to make the first step, but once it is made, it can spread.”

Otmazgin speculated that the real reason for Itochu’s move was not the war or the ICJ but pure economics.

“I think they have investments in Iran, so I think they are looking at their wider [economic] interests,” he said.

Asked what Israel can do to prevent this snowball effect – there are currently 90 Japanese companies with a presence in Israel, and Japan accounts for 12.8% of all investment in Israel’s hi-tech sector – Otmazgin said that Israel cannot do anything alone, but instead needs to work with the US, which has enormous influence on Japan.

“I think we should actually go together with the United States to assure the Japanese that Israel is a safe market,” he said. “My recommendation would be to get the Americans involved in reassuring the Japanese about the economy, about America’s commitment to Israel, about Israel’s commitment to – as it was stated in The Hague – international law and international institutions. I think Japan doesn’t want to be associated with any kind of ‘outlaw’ country.’”

Sacrificing ties with Israel because of a concern about how it would affect Japan’s economic interests in the Middle East and its oil dependency was long a trademark of Japan’s foreign policy, from the Yom Kippur War in 1973 until the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, when Subaru ceased to be the only Japanese car sold in Israel, as more Japanese companies came to the conclusion that business with Israel would not hurt business with the Arab world.

Abe, however, was the leader who most significantly changed the Japanese government’s thinking toward the Jewish state.

“If there is anyone in Japan’s prior history that has made the greatest difference in enriching Israeli-Japanese and Jewish-Japanese relationships, it was Shinzo Abe,” Taniguchi said of Abe, who was assassinated two years ago.

“Both he and Netanyahu had a realistic view of their respective neighborhoods and came to terms with the fact that closer ties would serve the respective country’s national interests.

“That was a new thinking,” he continued, “because previously – when asked which would be more important [for Japan], Palestine or Israel – there were some who actually scratched their heads because they couldn’t tell which was more important. Abe was different. For him, there was absolutely no question that with the Israelis, the Japanese could achieve more.”

Taniguchi said that this “clear strategic thinking” is not shared by current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which he claimed explains the initial problematic response out of Tokyo.

Nevertheless, he said that the Japanese prime minister’s office is still more supportive of Israel than the foreign ministry, which he claimed has a pro-Arab and pro-Palestinian bias that can be traced to the amount of time foreign ministry diplomats in their formative years spend in the Arab world. Taniguchi worked in the foreign ministry from 2005 to 2008 as deputy press secretary and deputy secretary-general for public diplomacy.

“I think that the prime minister and foreign minister are both working hard to put that sentiment under control,” he said.

According to Taniguchi, a pro-Palestinian bias is also felt clearly in the media, which he said “is very much strongly in favor of Hamas and what the Palestinians say about the war.”

Nevertheless, the war is not receiving the blanket coverage in the Japanese press that it is getting in the US and European media, mainly because the Japanese people are less interested in the Middle East.

He said that the earthquake that hit Japan on January 1 takes up 70% of the news coverage these days, with 20% of the rest dealing with other domestic issues, and only about 10% left for foreign news. And even there, Israel is competing against Ukraine for time and space.

When Israel and the war do make it into the television news programs, Taniguchi said, what the public sees nightly are the horrible pictures coming out of Gaza. “Since the Japanese public doesn’t care that much about the Israeli-Palestinian issue, what catches their eyes is this easy-to-understand film footage that they see being sent all over, every day, from the Gaza Strip.”

According to Hebrew University’s Otmazgin, the government’s position toward Israel is more supportive than that of the public, largely – again – “because of the American factor.”

He said that the Japanese public knows little about the complexities of the Middle East and – unlike in Europe and the US – has not made up its mind one way or the other. “They don’t really know, and when they see the news, they generally feel sympathy towards the weak – but they are not biased [against Israel].”

He said that in trying to make its point to the Japanese public, Israel would do well in highlighting the North Korean arms that have been found in Hamas’s hands.

“If I was the Israeli ambassador to Japan, I would pursue this point because it will work in Israel’s favor. North Korea has a really bad image in Japan – associated with war and terrible things,” he said.

One diplomatic official had another suggestion for how Israel can get the Japanese people to better understand its position: highlight the comparison between Hamas and ISIS. Two Japanese men were beheaded by ISIS in 2015 in brutal incidents that traumatized the country. “When we compare Hamas to ISIS, they understand this,” the official said.

Taniguchi, meanwhile, had a different approach to the way Israel can combat the endless stream of footage of death and destruction coming out of Gaza. Israel should be doing more to explain how much effort is going into limiting civilian and collateral damage, he said, adding that this is a just war that Israel must win, but it’s “not the kind of war you could sing a very good song about... it’s a sad war.

“That sadness must be told by the Israelis to the rest of the world,” the former prime ministerial speechwriter said. “That you are not enjoying this, that you are sad, but that, nonetheless, you think this is the kind of war you must win. This is a sentiment that more passionate, emotive spokespeople could tell to the rest of the world. And if that was convincing, I think you will have more sympathetic ears, not only in Japan, but also from around the world.”