IDF official warned of fatal intel. failures right before Oct. 7 massacre

A wave of unprecedented reactions flooded me over the weekend, following the publication of the first results of the investigation into the military intelligence failure on October 7. For those who do not know, the IDF intelligence unit, Unit 8200, is the largest unit in the military. Tens of thousands of successful Israelis come out of 8200, many of whom go on to establish start-ups, become big players in the hi-tech and cyber industries, and lead Israel to the global forefront of cutting-edge technology.

Hundreds of them wrote to me through various platforms. They shared the pain of a major intelligence failure, their love for the special unit in which they spent formative years, suggestions for improvement, and criticisms.

To complete the picture, I present here what 8200 commander Y wrote to all the unit's soldiers and officers on September 24, 2023, on the eve of the 50th anniversary of our previous intelligence failure that was the Yom Kippur War, less than two weeks before the October 7 massacre. Here is the commander's letter in full.

A chilling read in retrospect: A warning of the dangers of intelligence failures

The lesson for the Yom Kippur War regarding personal readiness, and regarding the statement "It couldn't happen to me," still echoes 50 years later. Our main mission, as an intelligence unit, is to sound the alarm for war. We failed at that mission during the Yom Kippur War.

Since then, we have experienced successes and failures. Sometimes we found ourselves we were the first to sound the alarm, and sometimes we failed in providing the alert on time.

The challenge of sounding the alarm is universal.

One of the famous failures of US intelligence is Pearl Harbor. The Japanese navy attacked the American fleet, and the complete surprise led the United States to join World War II. This catastrophic failure led to the establishment of the CIA. [The Americans] famously said that since then, once every three years, they experience another Pearl Harbor. In simpler terms, we created an amazing intelligence agency, and yet we continue to experience major failures.

The importance of readiness cannot be underestimated. We cannot stress enough the challenge of fulfilling this mission.

As a young intelligence officer, I felt like I was a reincarnation of [the officers that were there on] that major blunder on Yom Kippur eve. I read every book, every article obsessively. I felt like I was there. And then, 20 years ago, I decided to meet with all the senior intelligence officers who were there during that war – Eli Zeira, who was the head of Aman [the Military Intelligence Directorate]; Aryeh Shalev, who was head of military research; Yoel Ben-Porat, head of SIGINT, and many others. I left every meeting shaken. I remember leaving meetings thinking to myself "Wow, they're so amazing and intelligent." I didn't feel like it was some slimy group [of incompetent officers]. After every meeting, I left with a feeling of "If they failed, it could happen to us too. It could happen to me too."

We all have a lot to learn from that war.

I would like to take advantage of the special moments of Erev Yom Kippur so that our greatest duty - the duty of maintaining readiness – resonates with all of us.

This duty is incumbent upon every soldier, male or female, on every officer, regular or reservist, on commanders and on civilians. A few weeks ago, as usual, I opened my email inbox and saw an email from one of our reservist soldiers about readiness.

I got excited.

A reserve officer from our unit arrived a few days ago at one of our bases and felt the responsibility and duty to report to the unit commander about a complex operational-intelligence issue, which could, in his opinion, lead to intelligence blunders and harm to human lives if not addressed.

This is the culture we expect of ourselves. It is the responsibility of every officer, and this responsibility has become a duty.

The duty of personal readiness.

In the hours before the holiday, I ask to remind all of us that it could happen to us too. Talented commanders have failed in sounding the alarm before. We have a duty towards the State of Israel to provide warning and to do so on time. Therefore, we are committed to promoting a culture of dialogue and different viewpoints. To educate and set a personal example in the form of the courage to express an opinion.

In every generation, each soldier must feel as if they served during the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War, as if they were there and did not manage to prevent the surprise attack.

Just two generations have passed since the Yom Kippur War, and I, born to a father who fought on the front lines of the Egyptian front in that same war and later enlisted in Israeli intelligence 25 years after it, now wander through the expanses of time and feel that I was part of the blunders that led up to that war. I failed, I learned, and I continue to learn.

I was in US intelligence when we failed to raise the alarm about Pearl Harbor.

I served in the IDF during the Rotem crisis in February 1960, and failed to sound the alarm about Egyptian divisions entering Sinai.

I missed sounding the alarm about the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 and almost brought about a nuclear war, missed sounding the alarm about the Iranian revolution in 1979, and failed to warn before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989.

I failed to sound the alarm about Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, and did not provide warning about the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in 2001.

I was there when we missed the warning before the kidnapping of soldiers on Mount Dov in 2000, and did not warn about Hamas winning the Palestinian Authority elections in 2006.

I was there when we did not sound the alarm before the abduction [of Gilad Schalit] in 2006, and took part in the intelligence failure about the revolution in Egypt in 2011.

On a personal note – in my many years in Israeli intelligence, I failed to sound the alarm more than once. One of those times was exactly 20 years ago on the afternoon of Yom Kippur, when Hezbollah carried out a sniping attack against Metula during the Ne'ilah prayers in synagogues across the country, and [a man named] David was killed.

The duty of personal readiness is our commitment to the generation of Yom Kippur War commanders, who faced major challenges yet chose to continue growing.

The duty of personal readiness is our commitment to the IDF.

The duty of personal readiness is our obligation towards all the citizens in our dear and beloved State of Israel.

The duty of personal readiness is our obligation to ourselves.

I wish and expect from us that in the coming year each and every one of us will know that "it could happen to me," and therefore that we will encourage different viewpoints , and adhere to the spirit and culture of the duty of personal readiness.

In a few hours the commotion will stop

And the silence will be sanctified.

These are hours for personal and national soul-searching.

I would like to wish a good year, a long, good life, and peace.

To each and every one of the unit's regular and reserve soldiers,

To their dear family members,

To all of Israel,

And to every man and woman on earth.

Commander Y.

So much for that letter.