Reflecting on Israel’s vulnerability: A strategic overview six months into Gaza war - analysis

Six months have passed since Hamas’ horrific terror attack on Israel and the consequent war in Gaza began. In the early hours of Oct. 7, Hamas launched a coordinated assault on Israeli civilian settlements, military bases, and the Nova music festival along Israel’s southern border with Gaza. In addition to firing 5,000 rockets into Israel, Hamas fighters also physically breached the border and carried out a surprise attack, including widespread sexual violence, which resulted in over 1,194 fatalities, 4,834 injuries, and the taking of more than 253 hostages, 130 of whom are still in captivity.

In response, Israel initiated Operation Swords of Iron, with the dual objectives of safeguarding Israel and securing the release of all hostages. To date, over 11,278 rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip, South Lebanon, and Syria into Israel, averaging 62 per day. The intensity of incoming rocket fire is unlikely to dissipate any time soon. In fact, on April 4, the IDF halted leave for combat units, citing ongoing assessments of deployment needs during wartime.

For the foreseeable future, Israeli soldiers will continue to actively fight on all fronts. To date, 604 casualties have been reported, though this figure only represents those soldiers whose names have been cleared for publication.

Since the beginning of the war, approximately 250,000 Israeli citizens have been displaced, according to reports. Among them, around 164,000 received instructions or recommendations from the government to evacuate, with compensation provided.

The Media Line engaged in a panel discussion with the nonprofit national security consulting team MIND Israel, featuring insights from Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, president and founder of the organization, senior adviser Brig. Gen. (ret.) Ram Yavne, and senior adviser and program manager Dr. Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky. In addition, Prof. Benny Miller, a professor of international relations and director of the National Security Center at the School of Political Sciences of the University of Haifa, exclusively provided The Media Line with his war expertise.

Highlighting the IDF’s achievements so far on the southern front, Brig. Gen. Yavne told The Media Line, “I would say that Israel has gained a relatively severe hit at the military capabilities of Hamas, and even at the other capabilities of Hamas inside the Gaza Strip. The organization has been weakened dramatically.”

Over 100 hostages returned

To date, 112 hostages have been returned alive to Israel, with 105 being released in a prisoner exchange deal. According to Yavne, their release is viewed in Israel as a separate accomplishment despite the significant challenge that persists of rescuing the remaining hostages.

“Hamas has been hit severely, and that’s the understanding of all Hamas people and even of [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar himself, but still, they have some assets,” he added.

Yavne explained that Hamas sees its first asset as the hostages themselves while the second is the remaining military capabilities it has in the Gaza Strip.

“They’re trying to work in other areas, such as the West Bank. They still have wide support and legitimacy in other Palestinian areas,” added Yavne. “Polls are showing that there is relatively wide support for Hamas even now.”

Explaining the IDF’s operational aims in southern Gaza, Yavne said: “The operation in Rafah has two logics—to keep the military capability of Hamas inside that area and to stop the smuggling and the buildup of power through Egypt into the Gaza Strip in the future.” He added that the latter aspect is essential. If not prevented, Hamas will make every effort to rebuild its power.

“This challenge, of course, needs cooperation with Egypt and the US,” he admitted.

According to Yavne, Egypt is ready to cooperate with Israel in achieving its aims. “It depends on Israeli pressure, but much more importantly on American pressure,” he concluded.

Meanwhile, Maj. Gen. Yadlin highlighted Israel’s current critical juncture in determining the war’s course. Providing insight into potential scenarios for the ongoing conflict, he emphasized the significance of the present moment in shaping the region’s future.

“It can escalate to a regional war because of Iran and Hizbullah, and the war will move from a limited war in Gaza to a regional war. At the same time, it can deescalate towards a process that will fix some of the problems,” he said.

Yadlin explained that the future trajectory of the conflict hinges on the negotiation and potential success of a hostage deal. If negotiations are successful, a cease-fire on both Israel’s southern and northern borders is possible. This optimistic view includes the potential for normalization in the region.

“The hostages deal is under negotiation as we speak. Don’t forget for a moment who started this war and who could have stopped it at any moment in the last four months,” Yadlin emphasized.

Referring to the Iranian threat, Yadlin continued: “Iran is behind all of this. Iran is enjoying the fact that Israel was diverted towards a front in Gaza. Most of the world is ignoring the fact that Iran continues to advance to a nuclear weapon. And it’s the irony of history.”

As Israel heads into its sixth month of war, Yavne laid out four potential scenarios that could play out in the region.

First, Israel could escalate its military operations in Gaza, possibly leading to complete military control over the territory. Second, a state of chaos could endure, characterized by sporadic Israeli incursions into Gaza and an absence of effective governance, a scenario that leaders are currently observing in certain areas throughout Gaza. The third scenario, according to Yavne, is that Hamas might regain control of Gaza, albeit in a weakened capacity because of Israel’s ongoing military actions reducing its capabilities. Lastly, there’s speculation of another governing entity, most likely the Palestinian Authority, assuming control of Gaza.

Yavne also cautioned that Israel now faces a more significant threat than Hamas.

“Hizbullah is a much bigger organization. There are more than 50,000 rockets and even accurate missiles. A variety of Iranian-made weapons, which is the best arsenal they’ve had in several years,” he said, adding that Hizbullah and Iran are playing a “game of attrition.”

“That’s why Israel is trying all the time to elaborate the rhythm and the tempo of the confrontation—in an attempt to do two things: to signal to Hizbullah and the Iranians that they are paying a high price for opening the frontier between Israel and Lebanon and to force a withdrawal of [Hizbullah’s] Radwan Force, which can make a ground attack into Israel,” he explained.

According to Yadlin, since Iranians blame Israel for the recent attack in Damascus, Iran may now be asking Hizbullah to retaliate.

“If Iran wants to react in the short term, the best day would be the Iranian Jerusalem Day, the last Friday of Ramadan,” he explained, emphasizing that Israel has a very good air, missile, and rocket defense system in place.

[Editor’s note: After Yadlin said this, the last Friday of Ramadan, April 5, came and went, without a major attack on Israel from Hizbullah or Iran.]

“Israel is attacked daily from Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. We have good intelligence, good early warning radars, excellent Arrows, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome, and the F-35 that can stop the Iranian attack,” Yadlin said. However, he added, “depending on the consequences of the attack, the war may escalate.”

Asked why Israel allegedly risked the escalation by attacking Iran’s Embassy compound in Damascus in the first place, Prof. Miller explained that “an unrecognized Israeli attack in Damascus might be an automatic response.”

“This is continued Israeli policy. Sometimes it’s based on opportunity. Doing all kinds of acts that may be more effective in the long run,” he added.

There is an additional domestic political dimension that might be influencing the trajectory of this war as well, according to Miller.

“It might be that Netanyahu’s strategy is to avoid elections by extending the war. He probably believes that as time passes, people will forget his responsibility for this huge tragedy for Israel,” he added.

Meanwhile, Dr. Hatuel-Radoshitzky addressed another crucial aspect of the current war: humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza.

“The IDF is pushing for food and humanitarian supplies into Gaza. We are currently at about 130 trucks a day,” she shared.

“Enough supplies are going in. The problem lies in picking up the delivered goods and distributing them. We need to ask where the UN organizations are and where the people who need to distribute these goods are,” Hatuel-Radoshitzky added.

Commenting on the recent Israeli airstrike that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers, she said, “It was a tragic accident. In every way possible, the Israeli Defense Forces communicated that this was a mistake and that it was being researched and investigated. I do want to say that there are mistakes in war zones, and I think the most poignant demonstration of that is that our forces shot our hostages,” she said.