Hostage deal or Rafah operation: Where do Israeli citizen's priorities lie? - survey

The majority of Jewish Israelis (56%) share the opinion that the release of hostages should be considered Israel’s highest priority, according to a newly published survey by the  Israel Democracy Institute's Viterbi Center for Public Opinion.

The survey was conducted online and by phone between the dates of May 1, 2024 until May 6, 2024. A total of 600 participants were interviewed in Hebrew and 150 were interviewed in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample of the entire adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error for the entire sample is ±3.65 at a confidence rate of 95%.

While 56% of Jewish Israelis said that the hostages should be the greatest priority, 37% of those surveyed said that a military operation in Rafah is top priority in terms of Israel’s national interest.

Arab Israelis, with far more consensus than Jewish Israelis (88.5%,) said that Israel’s priority should be reaching a deal to release the remaining hostages.

Political differences impacting the perception of Israel’s priorities

While Jewish Israelis share less consensus than their Arab-Israeli counterpart, political affiliations were found to strongly impact how individuals perceive Israel’s priorities. 

The large majority of Left-wing (92.5%) and centrist (78%) Jewish Israelis believe that a deal with Hamas to release the hostages should be placed as the highest priority in Israel’s national interest. However, 55% of Right-wing Jewish Israelis feel that an operation in Rafah is more important.

Likud-voters in the last election are more divided, with 48.5% giving priority to military action and 44% having said they prioritized a deal to release the hostages. Conversely, among voters for the Haredi parties and voters for the Religious Zionism Party, the majority prefer military action in Rafah (Shas: 55%; United Torah Judaism: 61%; Religious Zionism: 83%.)

Gender impacting the perception of Israel’s priorities

Jewish Israeli women were more likely to support a hostage release deal being prioritized, with 63.5% stating it should be a priority compared to only 49% of Jewish Israeli men. However, the majority of men answered that they prioritized releasing the hostages above a Rafah op.

Age impacting the perception of Israel’s priorities

Older Israelis were more likely to support a hostage deal as a top priority compared to their younger counterparts. Those ages 18-34 were split between 48.5% who preferred a deal and 45.5% who preferred military action.

However, a majority in the age groups 35-54 and 55+ prefer a hostage deal (53% and 67%.)