War with Hezbollah coming as pressure makes Hamas desperate, commentator predicts

Although the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an order to stop activities in Rafah, Israel continued its military activities in the area.

The harsh international reaction and condemnation of Israel came almost immediately. For example, Saudi Arabia condemned and accused Israel of murder, and the ambassador in Paris intended to propose to 'stop the massacre.'

Hezi Simantov, a commentator and correspondent for Arab affairs of Channel 13 News, was interviewed this Wednesday morning by Udi Segal and Anat Davidov on 103FM radio and addressed this complex issue. 

Simantov stated, "Hamas is under pressure from the IDF operation in Rafah. They say they will not agree to a ceasefire unless the IDF stops the operation in Rafah. They call the abduction deal 'a prisoner swap deal and a ceasefire.' The operation in Rafah could lead to a change in the situation in the Strip, and there may be a political alternative there, which greatly disturbs Hamas on this matter. Although Hamas estimates they will be able to survive the military operation in Rafah due to tension with Egypt, the humanitarian situation in the Strip and the incidents in Rafah are attributed to the IDF."

Hamas's effective propaganda strategy

Simantov then commented on the video of Israeli hostage Alex Tropanov, posted by Islamic Jihad.

"We don't know when the video was filmed. The sign of life is valid only at that moment (the video was filmed)," he said. "We don't know when they will release new videos, but we know that Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) filmed the captives to use as bait in the future. This is their greatest weapon. They use this as a message to show Hamas can bring order to the chaos if the IDF stops their military action. Hamas told the mediators, Egypt and Qatar, that they cannot give Israel what it wants: 30-40 live captives. Suddenly, the PIJ publishes a video of an Israeli captive. Since October 7, Hamas has been very coordinated in terms of communication and illustrative propaganda."

Towards the end of the interview, Simantov addressed the tense situation in the North. 

"The whole story shows that we are indeed close to the escalation of war in the North," Simantov stated. "It is heading in that direction because all the talk about a political settlement, in my estimation, will only postpone the confrontation in the North, not prevent it. Any agreement that distances Hezbollah from the border will only postpone the war. There is an issue here where Hezbollah and Iran understand that it is possible and necessary to challenge Israel after October 7. From the moment Iran launched rockets towards Israel, that assumption failed, and it is also starting to roll towards Hezbollah."

Edited by Michal Kadosh for 103FM radio