Northern flare-up heightens importance of stalled US arms flow - analysis

A Washington Post report on Monday stating that two key Democratic legislators had signed off on a major arms deal with Israel came at a propitious moment: with White House Lebanon envoy Amos Hochstein wrapping up a day of talks in Jerusalem and headed for Beirut.

The $18 billion arms deal includes the sale of some 50 F-15 fighter jets – which will not be delivered for years – as well as air-to-air missiles and Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits that turn “dumb” bombs into precision-guided ones.

New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, publicly vowed to hold up the deal until he received assurances about how the munitions would be used in Gaza. Under pressure from the Biden administration, Meeks, according to the report, has come around, as has Democrat Ben Cardin, a staunchly pro-Israel senator from Maryland who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

How is this linked to Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon? Because the US agreement to go ahead with the massive arms deal sends a strong signal to Hezbollah and Iran of continued US military support for Israel, despite tension, disagreements over how the war is being waged in Gaza, and delays in the shipment of other arms.

The conflict “between Israel and Hezbollah has gone on for long enough,” Hochstein said Tuesday in Beirut. “It’s in everyone’s interest to resolve it quickly and diplomatically. That is both achievable, and it is urgent.”

The knowledge that the US is resupplying Israel may convince those in Lebanon with Hezbollah ties that reaching a diplomatic solution is preferable to escalating hostilities.

In May, against the backdrop of an impending military action in Rafah, the US paused delivery of some 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs because of concern about the damage they could cause to the civilian population. That type of arms delay – which apparently is still continuing – triggered a rare public rebuke on Tuesday by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an English video.

Netanyahu – after expressing appreciation for the US support since the beginning of the war – said: “It is inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunition to Israel.”

He had brought this up with Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his recent visit, he said, adding that Blinken “assured me that the administration is working day and night to remove these bottlenecks. I certainly hope that’s the case. It should be the case. Israel, America’s closest ally, [is] fighting for its life, fighting against Iran and our other common enemies.”

A report Monday in Germany’s Bild newspaper said Netanyahu had complained to Blinken that while the arms to Israel flowed at the beginning of the war, they have since been halted, and that this benefits Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. In addition, he said it extends the war and risks causing an escalation, the report said.

Israel's enemies watching whether US is slowing arms supply 

Why an escalation? Because the fate of these types of arms deals is carefully watched not only by pro-Israel supporters who want to ensure that Israel has the weapons it needs. Israel’s enemies are also watching to see if America is slowing down its supply of arms, something that could lead to a fatal miscalculation on their part. One of the major concerns regarding the situation in the North is that a miscalculation will lead to an all-out war.

Some argued in April that Iran’s decision to directly attack Israel from its own territory by firing more than 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles – the first time it has ever done so – was related to heightened tension at the time between Israel and Washington over the accidental killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza.

At the time, 56 Democratic members of the House of Representatives signed a letter calling for a withholding of major arms transfers to Israel until an investigation into the World Central Kitchen deaths was completed. Some Israeli analysts said Iran’s decision to attack was partly rooted in Iran’s sense that because of the tension between Jerusalem and Washington at the time, the US would not come to Israel’s defense to the same degree it might have in the past.

They were mistaken: The US rallied around Israel both diplomatically and militarily in light of those attacks, helping Israel knock most of the drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles out of the air. Nevertheless, a perception that the US does not militarily have Israel’s back may very well lead Hezbollah and Iran to a degree of adventurism they would not embark on were they certain that the security relationship between the two countries has not been adversely affected.

Netanyahu’s urgent plea to the US to resume an uninterrupted flow of arms is not, however, solely because of a concern about how an interruption of the arms supply may be misinterpreted. It also has to do with the recent escalation in the North and the need for Israel to have its weapons stockpiles refilled in case it needs to turn from the war in Gaza to a major military campaign in Lebanon.

The premier’s statement on the matter in English is obviously a play for American public opinion, where a recent Fox News poll found that by a slim 51%-44% margin, Americans support providing military aid to Israel. The poll was conducted between May 22-25 among a random sample of 1,003 registered voters. A Pew poll from February 13-25 among 12,693 respondents found an even narrower gap, with 36% favoring military aid, 35% opposed, 14% neither supportive nor opposed, and 15% unsure.

“During World War II, Churchill told the United States, ‘Give us the tools; we’ll do the job,” Netanyahu said in his video. “And I say, give us the tools and we’ll finish the job a lot faster.”

His message to the American people was clear: Israel is not asking for the US to fight on its behalf, but only for the wherewithal to do so itself.

If, however, a full war breaks out in the North, with Hezbollah actively backed by Iran firing thousands of missiles a day toward the Israeli home front, Israel might not only be asking for the wherewithal to fight alone but also for active assistance – as was the case when it faced the Iranian missiles in April – in knocking those missiles out of the sky and preventing Israel’s missile-defense system from becoming overwhelmed.