Shejaia back in the crosshairs? Can IDF's clear and clear again tactic work? - analysis

Residents of Shejaia in northern Gaza fled a possible new IDF advance, according to reports on Thursday, and local residents posted footage of what they said were airstrikes and fighting.

The IDF spokesperson for Arabic media, Lt.-Col. Avichay Adraee, posted to X (formerly Twitter) a map, calling on people in Shejaia to evacuate south along Salah al-Din Road.

Shejaia was the focus of IDF operations last December and is historically a center of Hamas activity. When the IDF entered Shejaia in December, there was a reckoning to be had. The commander of the Golani’s 13th Battalion, Col. Tomer Grinberg, was killed fighting there in mid-December.

His unit had already taken heavy losses on October 7, when it was one of several understrength battalions on the border facing the Hamas onslaught. The neighborhood was also the scene of a difficult battle in the 2014 war, Operation Protective Edge, in which Golani soldiers suffered casualties when deployed in an aging M113 armored personnel carrier.

Therefore, any return to this neighborhood has many layers of significance. It is also not the only area in northern Gaza the IDF has returned to. It also returned to Zeitun several times to clear it of terrorists and to Shifa Hospital twice, once at the beginning of the war and again in March.

In May, the IDF reentered Jabalya for the second time for a three-week battle in which the bodies of seven hostages were found. As well, the Shati refugee camp outside Gaza City required more targeted raids, as did Beit Hanun and other areas of northern Gaza, such as Beit Lahiya and the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City.

The impression of northern Gaza is that Hamas continues to operate there and has forces, weapons, and areas that it has maintained control over, including the old neighborhoods of Gaza City.

The initial battles in northern Gaza in November and December were aimed at defeating the dozen Hamas battalions there. Once they were beaten, however, Hamas divided them into smaller cells of three to five men.

The IDF has returned to “sandpaper” those remainders down. What that means is that with each pass, the IDF uses less force, and Hamas has fewer fighters.

There are diminishing returns here as well, though, and after the initial heavy fighting, a lot of buildings were destroyed.

For instance, the Paratroopers Brigade in mid-December “demolished more than 100 buildings used by Hamas in the area, as well as located dozens of tunnel shafts, and arrested many operatives who had surrendered, among them a Hamas company commander and terrorists who participated in the October 7 massacres,” the IDF said at the time. The military is now more precise and uses less firepower.

Repeat failure or successful new tactic?

The Shejaia experience raises questions about whether this will become another Jabalya or if more will be accomplished. With talk circulating of the IDF reducing the intensity of operations even more in Gaza and wrapping up its presence in Rafah, it remains unclear whether the large raids will continue.

What also remains unclear is what may happen in central Gaza, where Hamas continues to operate with stronger measures. Reports circulated that Hamas was able to move forces out of Rafah, booby-trap homes, and then wait – a sort of “cup game” throughout the enclave, moving from place to place, one step ahead of the IDF.

Hamas also continues to claim numerous attacks along with other terrorist groups, targeting IDF forces. Although most of the attacks are not successful, it shows it still has manpower. It may have taken heavy losses, of 10,000 or 15,000 fighters, but it has likely recruited more. This will continue to present a challenge.