Hezbollah’s message in its large ‘retaliatory’ attacks - analysis

Hezbollah launched several attacks on Israel Thursday morning, beginning around 10 a.m. and continuing throughout the day, mostly involving the use of drones, which have become one of Hezbollah main weapons since Hezbollah chose to begin attacks on Israel after October 7.

Hezbollah claimed, via Iranian media, that it “launched a barrage of rockets at several Israeli military positions in response to the regime’s killing of one of its commanders in southern Lebanon.” It said that it targeted “five Israeli military positions, including with 100 Katyushas that targeted the headquarters of the Golan Division as well as Israel’s air and missile systems at Nafah Base,” Iran’s IRNA reported.

Hezbollah calls this a retaliation for Israel killing Muhammad Nimah Nasser, known as “Hajj Abu Naameh”, on Wednesday. He is the second high-level Hezbollah commander killed in the past month. Another was killed on June 12. Hezbollah responded in June by firing up to 215 rockets and projectiles at northern Israel.

Hezbollah members of parliament have said the retaliation against Israel will increase. “Hassan Fadlallah [a member of Lebanon’s parliament for Hezbollah] stressed that Hezbollah’s punitive response will come, and the enemy should realize that the resistance front has the upper hand,” IRNA reported. Hezbollah continues to warn Israel about launching a large military operation in Lebanon. Iran has also issued warnings about the chances of an escalating war.

Clearly Iran and Hezbollah do not want a larger war, because Iran wants to preserve Hezbollah so it can use it against Israel. Hezbollah has accomplished many of its aims over nine months of attacks. It has depopulated areas in northern Israel, including Kiryat Shmona, an unprecedented “success”, in the eyes of Hezbollah.

A recent article on Iranian state media IRNA, which reprints Hezbollah claims, noted that Israelis who left the North in October, due to the attacks, have become “refugees” in hotels in Israel. This is Iran and Hezbollah’s plan. Their plan does not want a major war because they are concerned about the damage Hezbollah will suffer.

Hezbollah's true message

The message from Hezbollah is clear from its attacks. It used drones in many incidents on Wednesday between 10 a.m. and noon, targeting an increasingly large area between the Sea of Galilee and Metulla. This included numerous sirens in the Golan and also in the Huleh valley, and communities that overlook the Huleh such as Shamir and Gonen. It also included Katzrin in the Golan. At 11:23 a.m., the area of Hezbollah attacks expanded to target Nahariya, and communities along the coast as well as further inland.

Hezbollah’s message is clear. It has a large enough drone and missile arsenal to chose where and when to attack. It is increasing its use of drones because drones can be precise and effective and also cause set off sirens over wide areas. Hezbollah can then achieve a multi-pronged list of what it sees as “successes.”

It can target with precision, and force civilians areas into shelters. Hezbollah often relies on Israeli media to bolster its sense of accomplishment  and sometimes seeks to launder news through foreign media and re-report its own “success” via Al-Mayadeen to make its claims seem more legitimate.

The point here is that Hezbollah’s claims alone do not make them true, but it thinks it makes it seem more accurate if it can get others to re-report its claims. Therefore the increase in attacks in retaliation for the killing of the commander will also be waged online and on media. For instance Al-Mayadeen reported that Israel’s Haaretz had said there are “difficult days” ahead now after the killing of Nasser in Lebanon. It remains to be seen if this is something Hezbollah actually has in store at the moment or if the retaliation will subside after a day.