'Hezbollah controls Hamas in Lebanon': Expert says Hezbollah unlikely to respond to strike on Deif

Following the strike that targeted Mohammad Deif, University of Haifa Prof. Amatzia Baram estimated Hezbollah terrorists would not change their modus operandi in the North.

"Despite the attempted assassination, Hezbollah will not operate in a more significant way than it is currently. It will continue with the usual method of operation - and will not increase the fire," he asserted.

"In the past, we killed senior commanders in Gaza, and Hezbollah never responded to their assassinations."

"Moreover, even when we eliminated seven Iranian generals in the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, including a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the response to the assassination was carried out by Iran alone – without Hezbollah's intervention," Baram added.

"Despite the direct and close relationship between Hezbollah and the Iranians, the organization did not respond with more massive fire towards the Galilee – since there is a clear division of labor between the organizations," he explained.

"Hezbollah usually reacts strongly following the elimination of a brigade commander or a front commander, but the organization's senior officials do not feel responsible for avenging the blood of a Palestinian commander – however senior he may be – and taking an unnecessary risk in starting an all-out war with Israel," stated Baram.

Possible involvement of Hamas's Lebanese branch

Although Hezbollah members apparently do not feel the need to retaliate, the Lebanese branch of Hamas may want to respond. "Even if it tries to retaliate – Hezbollah will limit Hamas in Lebanon, warn it against opening massive fire – since the responsibility for this area is ultimately Nasrallah's.

"Hezbollah has absolute control and full supervision over everything that Hamas does in southern Lebanon, and I believe that now Hezbollah is supervising Hamas even more – in order to restrain it," he added.

"Nasrallah is not ready for Hamas to bring Hezbollah into a full-scale war with Israel – they have had enough of the current war of attrition, so in my opinion, they will not expand the firing range," Baram said.

Beyond that, Baram said that a sharp reaction with massive fire towards the North by Hamas's Lebanese branch or Hezbollah would be a confirmation of Deif's assassination, which is not in Hamas's interest. "As long as there is no official Hamas announcement that Muhammad Deif has been killed, no one will try to avenge his death. If Deif is indeed eliminated, Hamas has no interest at the moment in informing the public and confirming this news – since this would be a cachet for the IDF's success.

"If Deif is indeed eliminated, of course, Sinwar will give an order to Hamas in Lebanon to act against Israel - but the one who actually supervises the organization in Lebanon is Hezbollah, which does not want to get involved in a full-scale war with Israel and will therefore make sure that Hamas does not go too far," Baram concluded.