'Baseless': Urban warfare researcher John Spencer battles war crimes accusations against Israel

John Spencer, urban warfare researcher and retired US officer, explained on Sunday why accusations against Israel of crimes against humanity are baseless and how it endangers Western countries.

He posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is wrong in its interpretation of Israel's actions in the war.

He said that he welcomes the court's attempts to bring war criminals to justice, but that in this particular case, it is a wrong decision to accuse Israel in this light, and that, according to him, is a move that may perversely achieve the exact opposite goal.

Spencer said that setting such a high standard when it comes to avoiding harm to civilians may cause governments to feel limited in their response to terror attacks against them in the context of self-defense.

This could create a chilling effect for states that comply with international legal norms while giving a bonus to recalcitrant states, such as Russia, or non-state actors, such as Hamas, that ignore such norms, he said.

"The war in Gaza is different from almost any other war I have seen," he continued. "The terrain, the density of tunnels under population centers, the nature of the enemy, and the presence of hostages - all of these combine to make this war one that is particularly difficult to conduct without bloodshed. 

"What I saw in Gaza convinced me that Israel took the necessary steps to avoid civilian casualties, even when it was constantly criticized for its conduct in the war." 

Spencer made these statements the day after an Israeli strike on Muhammad Deif, whose fate is unclear after the strike, and the successful elimination of Khan Yunis Brigade commander Rafa'a Salameh, who were both staying in a compound for displaced people with civilians also in the vicinity. After the strikes took place, accusations against Israel of deliberately harming civilians surfaced again.

https://t.co/AJ8a2WhqKm

— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) July 13, 2024

Spencer claims that Israel went above and beyond what was expected of a state in an attempt to prevent harm to non-combatants. The conditions of warfare in a dense urban area, which contains a network of tunnels of over 650 km, which were deliberately built under civilian and protected sites, and about 40 thousand enemy fighters, who dig in among the civilian population with the aim of assimilating into it, while holding over 200 hostages - are conditions that make it very difficult not to damage the civilian population.

According to Spencer, it is understood that Israel made mistakes in this war, like any other country in the war. However, accusations like "civilian starvation as a method of warfare" and "intentional direction of attacks against the civilian population" ignore mountains of contradictory evidence.

The ICC announced in May plans to issue arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant "on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity" allegedly committed during the war in Gaza after the October 7 attack.

Doing everything possible to reduce civilian casualties

Spencer said that Israel has implemented almost all civilian harm reduction methods required in urban warfare and the legal norms detailed in international humanitarian law and has also created some new ones that no military has ever attempted. This includes giving the civilian population an extended period of time to evacuate by ensuring safe routes for civilians to use and a humanitarian area to which they could flee, during the fighting itself and also personal text messages and announcements flown in drones in order to inform the civilian population that they must evacuate.

Spencer argues that no military has ever used all these direct electronic means to reach civilians. The same goes for the "tap the roof" tactic which allows the civilian population to evacuate a specific building before it is bombed.

Another important claim by Spencer is that "no one knows how many civilians died in Gaza, especially not Hamas." According to him, it is impossible for organizations to track civilian deaths on a daily basis, down to the single-digit level. This is because the fog of urban warfare is thicker than any other battlefield.

Spencer argues that the question that arises from the war data, along with the arrest warrants of the ICC, is whether any country trying to comply with international humanitarian legal norms can even wage wars, especially those in urban environments, or even defend itself.

According to him, the answer by The Hague is a resounding "no", even against an adversary that hardly cares to protect its own people. In fact, it employs a strategy of human sacrifice in an attempt to cause the death of as much of its population as possible. 

Ironically, by marking the Israeli leadership under the category of war criminals, the ICC may reduce the deterrent effect that other countries seek by deploying large armies and expensive weapons. The result, according to Spencer, could be an "open check" for unruly actors like Hamas as well as unruly countries like Russia, Iran, or North Korea.