Drone threat to Tel Aviv is wake-up call to Iran's multi-front threats - analysis

A suspected drone attack on Tel Aviv early on Friday morning represents a new front in the drone war being waged against Israel by Iranian-backed enemies.

Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as Iran itself, have used drones in attacks on Israel throughout the nine months of war after October 7. For instance, Iran launched hundreds of drones targeting Israel on the evening of April 13. The Houthis in Yemen have been bragging for months about extending the range of their drones to reach the Mediterranean.

Casualties and damage reported

One person was killed and ten injured in the suspected drone attack on Tel Aviv, which occurred around 3 a.m. on Friday. There is damage as well. Pro-Iranian media has been discussing the incident, and Al-Mayadeen said that the attack was a “Yemeni drone explosion on a Tel Aviv building.” The report noted that “A large drone penetrated the airspace of occupied Palestine at a low altitude from the sea and exploded in the city of Tel Aviv, causing significant damage to buildings and a number of injuries.”

This represents a significant threat to Israel and will give the Iranian proxies in the region a reason to feel they have accomplished a new success in their war efforts. Tel Aviv is a primary and symbolic target. If they have reached it with drones, it represents another setback for Israel’s deterrence and air superiority in the region. Targeting Tel Aviv has been a theme for Israel’s enemies stretching back to the 1948 War of Independence. Saddam Hussein also targeted Tel Aviv with Scud missiles in 1991.

Details of the drone strike:

Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen claimed the drone struck an area near Shalom Aleichem Street in Tel Aviv, “causing significant damage as a result of its collision with a building.” Footage posted online includes the humming of what appears to be a drone engine before a large explosion.

The fact that sirens were not activated is a worrying reality. If the drone reached Israel directly from Yemen, that, too, would be a severe cause for concern. If the drone approached from the sea, it would also illustrate that the Houthis, or whoever launched the drone, have new unpredictable long-range capabilities. However, even if the Houthis claim the attack as their own, it doesn’t necessarily mean they carried it out. The Iranian-backed rebels have claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia in the past that were carried out by Iran or Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq.

This means the Iranian axis works closely together and has been doing so for the last decade. These groups work together on drone technology as well. Hezbollah, for instance, claimed it had recently acquired the Shahed 101 drone, which operates with an electric engine and can fly long distances. It is relatively quiet compared to other drones, and Hezbollah claims it is difficult to detect with radar. Other drones used by Israel’s adversaries include the Ababil T and Samad 2 drones, and many of these are built according to Iranian designs.

An explosion was heard in Tel Aviv overnight. IDF: “An initial inquiry indicates that the explosion in Tel Aviv was caused by the falling of an aerial target, and no sirens were activated. The incident is under thorough review. Israeli security forces are currently operating at…

— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) July 19, 2024

The new drone war on Israel

The new drone war on Israel is waged on multiple fronts by the Iranian-backed axis of proxies and militias. This includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq. They have access to similar types of drones of varying sizes and ranges. Recent reports by Iranian-backed media have included claims that the Iraqi militias and Houthis work together to coordinate attacks on Israel. Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq recently released a statement threatening Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the US. In addition, an Iranian-backed group attacked US forces at Asad base in Iraq using drones this week. Hezbollah claimed it carried out drone attacks on July 18 as well.

Al-Mayadeen said the drone attack has caused “panic” in Israel. And it claimed that “settlers” in the city ran for cover. Iran views all Israelis as “settlers” in this context. Scenes were circulated, showing the moments of the explosion and its aftermath and the sound of the drone's engine before it hit the building. Israeli media also reported that "more than one drone targeted the area.” Pro-Iran media is watching Israel’s response closely and will be pleased that Israel appears “confused” amid the attack.

IDF statement on the attack

The IDF said, “An initial inquiry indicates that the falling of an aerial target caused the explosion in Tel Aviv, and no sirens were activated. The incident is under thorough review. Israeli security forces are currently operating at the scene. The IAF has since increased its air patrols to protect Israeli airspace. There is no change in the defensive guidelines of the Home Front Command.”

The alleged drone attack once again shows that Israel has let its deterrence slip in over nine months of war. While Israel is achieving tactical success in Gaza, it risks an overall strategic setback. The Iranian-backed axis seeks to attack Israel from multiple fronts to try to make up for the losses of Hamas in Gaza.