Israel targets Hamas commander in Tulkarm amid rising West Bank tensions - analysis

Israel targeted a Hamas commander with a drone in a recent operation in the city of Tulkarm, an important incident in a new, larger phase of a long war against Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank.

 In the past two years more weapons have been smuggled to Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, in the West Bank. The groups want to increase their role there and use the October 7 attacks as leverage to gain more support.

The IDF said on Tuesday that along with other security forces they “conducted a joint counter-terrorism operation in the Tulkarm area, as part of a series of over 50 counter-terrorism operations in the area since the beginning of the war. The soldiers struck a number of armed terrorists in exchanges of fire and dismantled numerous explosives that had been planted underneath the roads.”

The statement reveals the threat of the terror groups in places like Tulkarm. The large number of operations, a total of fifty in nine months, illustrates the emerging threat – more than one a week.

This represents a serious escalation that requires a more intense response. It’s not just in Tulkarm that security is breaking down. The Palestinian Authority is losing control or at risk of losing control elsewhere.

This week China hosts Fatah, the leading party in the Palestinian Authority, for talks with Hamas and thirteen other groups. It appears now that many of the other Palestinian groups, such as the marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), are willing to back Hamas and don’t mind some kind of a proposed unity or interim government.

Increased use of drones in the West Bank

It appears that even groups that once posed as moderates in the West Bank are now willing to let Hamas come in from the cold. Palestinian Islamic Jihad is also increasing its access to weapons, including rifles and explosives, in the West Bank. The whole picture is one of a volcano that could erupt.

Israel is increasingly using drones and airstrikes in the West Bank, something that would have been unheard of several years ago. It is an example of how a batter-armed enemy is changing.

The terror groups aim to carve out areas in which they can act more freely, such as Nur Shams camp, several kilometers east of Tulkarm. This is no small matter. The sense that these areas are becoming war zones like Gaza and the PA’s inability to do anything about it despite years of investment in the Palestinian Authority Security Forces is a major challenge.

Even as reports talk about a potential “day after” plan in Gaza, the fact that the PA cannot control the West Bank shows that they will be unlikely to have a positive effect in Gaza. What if China is brokering a deal that will allow Hamas to move into Ramallah in the guise of the PA, even as some countries in the region, such as the UAE, promote a “day after” that does not include Hamas.

What if Beijing’s goal, along with Iran, Russia, Turkey and Qatar, is a bait and switch, to get Israel into a Gaza quagmire and draw in the international community, while Hamas and armed groups in the northern West Bank head for Ramallah and the PA institutions there?

The raids in the West Bank require more sophisticated capabilities, including drones and D-9 bulldozers. Even when the terrorists are eliminated, they pose a major threat. “The Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, said it detonated an explosive device in an Israeli bulldozer in Tulkarm and other vehicles as they advanced to the city’s Muqata’a Street,” Al-Ain media from the UAE reported on Tuesday about Tulkarm. The same report talked about clashes in Hebron and in other areas of the West Bank. Israel’s raids are “fueling the fire,” the Al-Ain report said.

Meanwhile, pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media highlighted the continued battles in Gaza where Hamas and other groups claim they attacked IDF forces in Rafah and other places in Gaza. The IDF is now operating again in Khan Yunis, where terrorists returned after April when the IDF withdrew.

This represents Israel’s growing challenge. One idea after October 7 was to pacify Gaza through raids as in the West Bank. Today. however, the West Bank is becoming more like Gaza, even as raids continue to grind down Hamas in Gaza.

This presents Israel with a multi-front threat of chaos in Gaza and in the West Bank, in addition to attacks from Hezbollah and the Houthis. This is what Iran calls “uniting the arenas,” an attempt to surround Israel with a circle of threats.