Dissecting the Haniyeh, Shukr assassinations and their impact - analysis

In a dramatic turn of events, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran early Wednesday in what is widely believed to be an Israeli operation.

The assassination came hours after a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, was targeted in Beirut. For this, Israel took responsibility, saying Shukr was behind the weekend rocket attack on the Israeli-Druze village of Majdal Shams in which 12 children were killed. The Lebanese-based and Iranian-backed terrorist group has yet to confirm his death.

The region now holds its breath as the dust settles on the two operations as their ramifications become clear.  

Israel promised to hunt down all of Hamas’ leaders after the Gaza-based terrorist organization carried out the deadliest attack ever perpetrated on Israeli soil on October 7 of last year. Hamas’ attack single-day attack killed approximately 1200 Israelis and wounded thousands of others. The organization also took about 250 people hostage. 115 Israelis still remain in Hamas captivity, their fate unknown. 

In response to the attack, Israel launched a massive war against Hamas in Gaza. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 38,000 Palestinians have been killed as a result, and almost 90,000 injured. Over 300 Israeli soldiers have been killed since Israel began its ground operation in the Gaza Strip.

Haniyeh's demise

The demise of Haniyeh comes at a critical time in which Hamas and Israel have been negotiating a ceasefire agreement. Mediation by the US, Qatar, and Egypt is also meant to bring to the gradual release of at least part of the Israeli hostages. The impact of the assassination is unclear. Hamas’ leadership is divided between the political wing that Haniyeh led and the military wing led by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to have been holed up in a tunnel somewhere in the underground of Gaza since October 7. 

Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his cabinet ministers not to interview on either event, but two did rejoice on social media as the news of Haniyeh’s assassination broke out.

“Careful what you wish for,” was what Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism Amichai Chikli posted on his X account together with a video snippet of Haniyeh nodding in approval as others chant “Death to Israel!” just hours before.

Heritage Minister Amichay Eliyahu also posted on his X account.

“This is the right way to clean the world from this filth. No more imaginary "peace"/surrender agreements, no more mercy for these mortals,” he wrote. “Haniyeh’s death makes the world a little bit better.”

Israelis were jubilant in the morning. The images of Haniyeh in a celebratory prayer in the early hours of October 7 were etched in their minds as a sign of Hamas’ cruelty. Various media reports said Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards were killed by a missile fired into an apartment building in which they were staying in Tehran.

“Once again, Israel has demonstrated remarkable intelligence and operational capabilities,” Professor Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told The Media Line. “There is also an important psychological effect on the Israeli public, which is in the doldrums and really needs some reinforcement.”

Haniyeh, who has been living in Qatar in recent years, and other members of Hamas were in Tehran for the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Hamas is funded and backed by Iran, as is Hezbollah. Also present at the ceremony were representatives of other members of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance,” such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Yemen-based Houthi rebels. Participants chanted, “Death to Israel, Death to America!”.

Israel has been facing all of these enemies and more since the war began, creating a complex strategic situation and bringing to question the effect of targeted killings as part of its campaign.

“It does not improve the overall strategic outlook for Israel,” Freilich continued. “Israel cannot kill every single Palestinian or Hezbollah leader. While it does somewhat disrupt operations, in the end, it makes Israel’s situation a little bit worse.”

According to Freilich, Hezbollah may have been able to contain Israel’s retaliation for the Majdal Shams incident. However, the additional assassination of Haniyeh just hours later put the organization and its main backer, Iran, under pressure to retaliate. 

The Israeli Home Front Command said there were currently no changes to the guidelines given to civilians, who were encouraged to continue their daily routine.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the operation in Beirut and in Tehran if carried out by Israeli forces. 

Netanyahu and the army have been the target of much criticism since the war broke out. Both are seen as responsible for the blunder that allowed Hamas to carry out the attack, which stunned Israel. There has also been mistrust between the political and defense echelon as Netanyahu and his allies have laid blame on the army for its ill-preparedness and lack of warning.

“Such an operation is an expression of the political echelon in the Israeli army,” said Col. (res.) Dr. Hanan Shai, an expert in military and diplomatic strategy at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told The Media Line. “Also, credit must be given to the political echelon who made the brave decision to approve the operation. Should it have failed, the blame would be put on Netanyahu and not on the army.”

Despite being elated by the latest successes, there is still much work to be done towards the goals that Netanyahu set – eliminating Hamas and releasing all of the Israeli hostages. The departure of Haniyeh from the political stage may not have much impact. He is not believed to have played an important role in Hamas’ military strategy. Media reports have also alluded to major differences between him and Sinwar regarding negotiations with Israel on the release of the hostages. Sinwar is considered to be a more hardline figure than the late Haniyeh. 

“How does this help achieve Israel’s objectives? Does it bring the war to an earlier close, does it bring the hostages home, and does it reduce the chances of a multiple-front war?” Freilich asked. “Israel has killed umpteen Palestinian leaders and Hezbollah leaders over the years. It hasn’t helped.”

“It doesn’t change anything and, at best, results in a temporary disruption,” he added. “It demonstrates the government's inability to form a strategy and a real substantive response.”

The Israeli government has been criticized both domestically and by the US for lacking a strategy that will end the war in Gaza while bringing about a different reality than the one that existed before October 7. As the war drags on, soon entering its tenth month, Netanyahu has been accused of deliberately elongating it in order to avoid the public backlash expected in the polls the day after the war is over.

“It certainly helps Netanyahu politically. It plays to his base and strengthens people’s sense of pride and confidence in the army,” said Freilich. “The politics here may actually be the primary reason for the nature of these actions.”

Israel’s goal of obliterating Hamas has been criticized by many as far-reaching.

“Hamas is an idea that cannot be eradicated,” said Shai. “Israel’s premise should be that it needs to eliminate its military capabilities and that it cannot get rid of the idea. These capabilities will likely be renewed, but then Israel needs to be prepared to thwart them immediately and not like what happened previously when Hamas was allowed to strengthen.”

The Netanyahu government has insisted that military pressure is the main way to get Hamas to agree to a deal. The assassination could be seen as part of that pressure. 

“It is counterproductive military pressure,” said Freilich. “Haniyeh wasn’t a military figure, so it doesn’t achieve anything militarily. It will unite Palestinians, even those who want to see a deal. It does not encourage Sinwar to reach a deal and only causes them to harden their position.”

It is difficult to estimate the effect of the latest move by Israel. Haniyeh’s removal from the stage could either further entrench Hamas or put more pressure on it. Meanwhile, the war shows no signs of ending. Israeli ground forces are still in the Gaza Strip. A statement released by the military on Wednesday said the air force struck “dozens of terror targets in the Gaza Strip, including terror infrastructure sites, terrorists, underground terror tunnel shafts, military posts, and structures.”

“Netanyahu was the first one to say that Israel has all the time in the world in its war on Hamas,” Shai said. “This was a grave mistake. Israel’s security is based on the premise that it cannot afford lengthy wars.”

The war has taken a toll on Israel, its society, its economy, and its international standing. The Jewish state is under increasing pressure to stop, including arms embargos by several countries and accusations of genocide and war crimes in international courts.  

Haniyeh was in charge of Hamas’ international relations and played a major role in fundraising for the organization, which enabled it to grow into almost an army along Israel’s southern border.

Hamas has threatened to retaliate the assassination. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also vowed to exact a price on Israel in a statement Wednesday