Ismail Haniyeh's death a major setback for Hamas and regional plans - analysis

The death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday serves as a major setback for Hamas, something that is clear from the outpouring of mourning across the region, especially among the axis of Iranian-linked proxies and also in Turkey and Qatar. Haniyeh was being groomed to be the man who would take over the Palestinian Authority in the coming years; October 7 was designed to catapult Hamas from its isolation in Gaza to controlling Ramallah and the West Bank, uniting the Palestinian fronts.

This was the long-term plan of Hamas, a plan that was backed by Turkey, Qatar, Iran, China, and Russia. These long-term plans were part of a major play by these countries to change Palestinian politics, after almost 20 years of extreme isolation for Hamas after it illegally took over the Gaza Strip in 2007.

In addition, Hamas’s backers generally oppose the West and the US, and they want to use October 7 as part of a larger war against the US-led Western world order that rose after the Cold War. Haniyeh was, therefore, much more than just the Hamas leader he had been in the past; he was on track to real influence and power in the region.

This is most of all why losing him matters. Hamas wanted to leverage October 7 to come to power in Ramallah, engineered further by the Iranian axis since then. China was a key part of this, recently hosting 14 Palestinian factions in Beijing, with the goal of using the meeting to bring Hamas to power in the West Bank via a kind of Trojan Horse in the guise of a unity agreement, which would really be Haniyeh behind the curtain.

Strategic plans and regional influence

Ankara and Doha have also been working towards this goal. The reason Doha dragged out the hostage and ceasefire talks was to bring Hamas more clout, enable its survival in Gaza, and secure a deal that would let it release hostages very slowly as part of a bait and switch to get Israel and the world to focus on the slow releases, while Hamas increases its role behind the scenes in the West Bank.

And Haniyeh understood the importance of this process. He had once served as Palestinian Authority prime minister in 2006 after Hamas performed well in the elections. He has wanted to return ever since, but he ended up in Gaza, and eventually moved to Qatar. Doha helped the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan after they were ejected in 2001, and likely believed it could do the same for Hamas. It appears that Hamas has done outreach to the PFLP Palestinian National Initiative and other factions in order to pave the way for its return.

IN ORDER for Haniyeh to return to the West Bank, the October 7 war had to play itself out a bit. This is because the Gaza-based leadership of Hamas is not suited for running the West Bank. Yahya Sinwar is a thug from Khan Yunis.

Though Muhammed Deif and Marwan Issa are dead, this didn’t matter to Hamas, so long as Haniyeh was alive.

His loss is a major blow because Hamas will have a hard time finding a well-known, popular leader who also has experience in the region and can be the one to craft Hamas’s return to power. Hamas has a bunch of other leaders, but most of them are not that well-known or have mostly lived abroad.

The death of Haniyeh is of long-term importance for Hamas’s strategy, one that will setback its plans and force Hamas and its backers to rethink the next move. “Of the genocidal apartheid state of Israel. [it] will never have a moment of peace,” Within Our Lifetime (WOL) said on social media.

The group alleged that pro-Israel activists approached the crowd and pepper sprayed several pro-Palestinian protesters, which included children.

One man with a Hezbollah headband was alleged by the New York Post to have been holding the portrait of slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

WOL eulogized Haniyeh after he was allegedly killed by Israeli operatives in Tehran on Wednesday, calling him a martyred “leader of Palestinian resistance.”

“The zionist project assumes that assassinations and massacres will halt the march of freedom from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, from the North to the South, but the 76-year-long history of the struggle for Palestine proves otherwise,” WOL said on X, also condemning the IDF’s killing of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr on Tuesday.

Elsewhere in New York City, the Bronx Anti-War Coalition and Friends of Swazi Freedom held a vigil in the memory of Haniyeh and Sonya Massey, who was shot in her Illinois home by police on July 6. Flowers and a Palestinian Keffiyeh were placed next to a photograph of Massey, according to images published by the groups. A speaker held up a photograph of Haniyeh at the vigil site.

Hamas and Hezbollah are both designated by the US State Department as foreign terrorist organizations.