Iran is 'winning the psychological warfare': Expert warns escalation will take toll on Israelis

After the back-to-back killings late last month of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in Lebanon and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, Israel has been on high alert.

“Israel is very prepared for any scenario, both defensively and offensively,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said recently. But statements like these haven’t stopped Israelis from panicking in the past week about possible retaliation from Israel’s enemies. 

Israel took responsibility for Shukr’s killing and has not publicly commented on Haniyeh’s assassination, for which Hamas and Iran blamed Israel. Both Iran and Hezbollah have threatened a harsh retaliation in a “couple of days or weeks,” vowing to show the world “scenes never seen before.”

After the April assassination of two Iranian generals in Damascus, Iran directly attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones, almost all of which were shot down by Israel and an international coalition. Iran has promised an even stronger response to Haniyeh’s assassination on Iranian soil. 

Hezbollah, which is funded by Iran, said that it will also take part in a coordinated attack to avenge the death of Shukr, one of the group’s key figures.

Israel's next steps

The long wait for retaliation has opened up discussions in Israel about whether to attack preemptively or wait to see the impact of further escalation.

“We still have families that have been far away from their homes for far too long in the north. This is not acceptable, so maybe we need to act by force and take back control of our land from Hezbollah,” Brig. Gen. (res.) Ram Shmueli, former head of the Israeli military’s Air Intelligence Group, told The Media Line. “Israel is prepared to strike even preemptively and could face any challenge at the moment. I personally believe that we should not wait any longer.”

He said that the relative weakness of Iran and Hezbollah’s air forces compared to Israel’s is liable to provide a false sense of security. 

“We have nothing against Lebanese and Iranian people, but terrorism must be defeated for their sake as well,” he said.

Will Iran attack Israel?

David Menashri, an Iran expert at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line that the Iranian opposition and the country’s new president are putting pressure on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei not to attack Israel.  

“The people of Iran want to live and are gradually distancing themselves from religion,” Menashri said. “Most of them clearly hope that the new president may pursue peace in the region and are against the concept of war, which may impact Khamenei’s actions in the long run.”

He described the conflict between Israel and Iran as a cat-and-mouse game. “Israel is not that good at the game of patience like Iran, so it will be interesting to see if it will act first,” he said. “Iran is clearly winning the psychological warfare at the moment.”

Fear of escalation is taking its toll on Israelis as the country faces its tenth month of war, with conflict raging at the northern and southern borders. Central Israel has also faced violence from Iran-backed militias, such as in last month’s Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv that killed one civilian. 

Israeli public institutions have also been affected by the conflict. With the looming possibility of a more intense war, some are uncertain whether Israel’s hospitals and other institutions are up to the task. 

“Our hospital is 100% ready,” Steve Waltz, a spokesperson for Sheba Medical Center in central Israel, told The Media Line. “We have enough doctors, nurses, and support personnel for any scenario. We have treated thousands of soldiers and civilians hit by attacks throughout these months and among them 36 hostages.”

He said that the hospital also has an underground facility with a 2,000-bed capacity. 

David Ratner, spokesperson for Rambam Hospital in Haifa, told The Media Line that Rambam is preparing for potential Hezbollah missile fire. 

Just two days after October 7, Ratner said, Rambam began converting part of an underground parking lot to operate as a protected hospital unit.

“We already have all the tools and equipment necessary in case of emergency,” Ratner said of the underground unit. “Currently, there are 1,200 beds, and we are just waiting for the government to give us instructions to move the patients here.”

Gil Meller, deputy spokesperson for Haifa, told The Media Line that the northern city has emergency response plans in place.

“We have more than 100 public shelters around the city, and since we are aware that not every resident has their own safe room inside the house, we turned parking lots into shelters that may contain thousands of people. They are already provided with generators and Wi-Fi,” he said.

Meller said that the municipality is working on plans to hold public school classes in these shelters if needed. Families that fled Israel’s northern border for Haifa and are now living in hotels are also included in the emergency plan. 

“We invested a lot in terms of finances, but this is our duty to our citizens,” he said.