Hezbollah's tunnel video shows just the tip of the iceberg - analysis

Hezbollah released a new video on Friday showcasing what appears to be a large tunnel complex where it keeps missiles. The video was released two weeks after Hezbollah vowed to increase its attacks against Israel in response to the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr last month.

The new video shows a tunnel complex called Imad 4. It is not clear where it is located, and Hezbollah claims the place is secret and has not been detected by any “foreign” intelligence agency.

The pro-Iranian media outlet Al-Mayadeen describes the site as a “sophisticated underground facility and an extensive tunnel network, complete with missile launch pads.” The tunnels are so large that trucks and vehicles can move through them. There are blast doors.

The pro-Iranian report calls this a “state-of-the-art technical system and a secure communication network that links it to the outside world, allowing it to receive launch orders within minutes, adding that the network’s communications are said to be highly encrypted for added security.”

Hezbollah is releasing this video now in the context of its threats to increase attacks on Israel. The group has already launched 7,500 rockets and 200 drone attacks against the Jewish state since October 2023.

 It is not as if Hezbollah has not already revealed a part of its capabilities. However, the terrorist group is playing its cards close to its chest, revealing its capabilities slowly and only showing a part of what it has.

This is the point of the video: It is a shot across Israel’s bow. Jerusalem has preferred to conduct precision and proportional responses to Hezbollah’s attacks over 10 months of conflict. Israel has evacuated some 60,000 people, including 14,000 children, from the North. In response to the Hezbollah attacks, some 410 of its operatives have been killed. This is in contrast to estimates of 17,000 Hamas members killed in Gaza.

Why reveal the arsenal now?

Hezbollah claims the new underground facility it revealed has dedicated construction, security, and backup launch teams. “These teams operate based on predetermined coordinates for launching operations.

In addition, “the facility, according to exclusive sources, is outfitted with a field hospital and enough supplies to sustain its occupants for a period ranging from eight months to a year,” claims Al-Mayadeen. Hezbollah supposedly has other facilities like this housing larger rockets. It also has precision-guided munitions.

The overall point Hezbollah is making is that it has these capabilities and this is only the tip of the iceberg. Iran has showcased similar underground missile and drone sites in the past.

Iran clearly advises Hezbollah on how to construct these sites and Israel’s two adversaries share details they have learned. Hezbollah has already learned much in 10 months of low-level conflict with the Jewish state.

The group believes it is winning, in the sense that it dictates the time and place of attacks and the tempo of operations. For instance, Hezbollah claimed it targeted the Israeli community of Shamir on August 15 in a new extension of the range of its attacks.

It’s worth noting that the recent round of escalation began when the terror group murdered 12 children in a rocket attack on the northern Druze town of Majdal Shams. Hezbollah is the one driving this conflict.

However, the group’s decision to showcase this underground complex may actually represent a climb down in rhetoric after two weeks. The more Hezbollah wants to “show” its capabilities, the less likely it may be to use them. This is therefore a message and a shot in this long war, but it may not yet be a battle cry.