Hezbollah’s Katzrin attack shows terror group’s plans - analysis

Although Hezbollah has targeted Katzrin in the past, Wednesday’s destruction was the largest of its kind since it started attacking Israel in October 2023.

Hezbollah launched more than 50 rockets toward the Golan on Wednesday. The attack led to destruction in Katzrin, a large town in central Golan.

Hezbollah is slowly escalating the war on Israel, and this is another part of that escalation, which began a week ago with attacks on Shamir in northern Israel’s Hula Valley.

“Following the sirens that sounded in northern Israel regarding rocket and missile launches in the area of the Golan Heights, approximately 50 projectiles were identified crossing from Lebanon toward Israeli territory. Some were intercepted by the IDF Aerial Defense Array, and a number of fallen projectiles were identified in the area of the town of Katzrin,” the IDF stated.

Hezbollah sought to claim that it was targeting an Israeli military site near Katzrin. However, Hezbollah has precision munitions, such as drones, to accurately target IDF sites when it wants to. Hezbollah has proven this in the past with precision drone strikes that have occasionally killed or wounded Israeli soldiers. This has also been demonstrated in attacks targeting, for example, Mount Meron. Hezbollah knows where civilian towns and communities are located. When it wants to rain down rockets, it chooses to fire the kinds of salvos and barrages it did on Wednesday. In fact, this is part of the larger Hezbollah plan to increase the range of its attacks and spread terror in northern Israel.

Hezbollah’s months of attacks have already forced 60,000 Israelis out of their homes. Now it wants to force more people to leave. Hezbollah has recently targeted not only the community of Shamir, but also Ayelet HaShahar in northern Israel. The large attack on the area of Katzin is another example of Hezbollah’s plans. The Iranian-backed terrorist group is demonstrating that it can dictate the pace of operations and attack at a time and place of its choosing. While the group will spin this attack by claiming it targeted an IDF site and that it is “retaliating” for IDF strikes in Lebanon, the overall picture is clear.

Hezbollah claimed it struck what it said was the “Tsnobar 651 base, [which] is located in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, 18 km. from the Lebanese border, and is affiliated with the Northern Command of the Israeli enemy’s army,” the pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media said.

“The base houses infantry forces during their training period in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. It also includes an artillery ammunition center belonging to the regional armament unit in the Israeli army,” Hezbollah said. The group further claimed that it was retaliating for Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon, and it mentioned airstrikes that it said occurred in the Bekaa Valley on Tuesday evening.

According to Al-Mayadeen, “hostile Israeli raids targeted the Bekaa yesterday.” Hezbollah said it attacked 12 targets in Israel in retaliation. “The targets included the headquarters of the 210th Golan Division Command in the Nafah barracks, the headquarters of the Artillery Regiment and Armored Brigade in the Yarden barracks, the Baranit barracks, the 146th Division Headquarters in Ga’aton, [and sites in] Matat, Marj, Ramia, Shomira, the 7th Armored Brigade barracks, and Ya’ara.”

What can be learned from the Katzrin attack

WHAT CAN we learn from this? Hezbollah is not only escalating; it is also showing that it can pinpoint sites it wants to attack. Hezbollah views this as a complex tactical war, and it is openly explaining its tactics. It also seeks to expand the war slightly but in a systematic and deliberate manner. This is calculated to prevent a major war.

Israelis may be growing tired of these endless attacks on the North. A recent Institute for National Security Studies survey noted that “44 percent of respondents believe that military action against Hezbollah should be initiated, with about half of them supporting this even at the risk of a regional war, including the occupation and control of southern Lebanon.”

So far, Hezbollah calculates that there is no major drive for war in Israel and that it can continue this war of attrition. Hezbollah is willing to suffer some losses, including the 400 members that have already been killed, including senior commanders. It believes it is winning because it is openly waging war inside Israel and, unlike in the past, it is not facing a significant counterattack.

Hezbollah can read Israel’s media and statements. It knows that Israel’s defense minister has often spoken about the need to focus on Hezbollah. During a recent visit to Israel’s 36th Division in the North, he said, “Our center of gravity is moving from south to north.” Hezbollah is seeking to preempt this by moving its center of gravity toward more attacks, like the one in Katzrin.