Israel’s stark dilemmas after hostage deaths - analysis

The murder of six hostages in Gaza by Hamas represents a potential new turning point in the long war in Gaza. Hamas murdered Ori Danino, Alexander Lobanov, Almog Sarusi, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, and Carmel Gat, Eden Yerushalmi. It is believed the murders happened very recently, in the last days of August, just before the IDF discovered the bodies deep in a tunnel in Rafah. The murder of the hostages could lead to tough discussions about Israel’s current tactics in Gaza and whether the endless ceasefire talks are having an effect. Hamas feels it can murder hostages and continue to control most of Gaza.

The murders of the hostages leave Israel with painful decisions to make. There are many who have called for a ceasefire in Israel and who want to see a deal with Hamas. Hamas claims that it supports a deal as well, based on terms agreed back in July. This deal has had many different countries play a role, including Qatar, Egypt, and the US. Qatar has played a dual role, as both host of Hamas and also the country that gains endless praise by the US and the West for its role in these talks. It’s not clear if Doha has actually prolonged the talks in order to advance Hamas’s demands, but it is clear that the talks have continued for seven months with little progress.

Those who follow the talks will claim that this is not the case. That they have frequently come close to some kind of agreement. However, the public has heard this for 10 months. “Almost” a done deal is what the public was told, often misleadingly. This is why the murder of these hostages has hit home so hard, because many believe that they could have been released as part of a deal. For instance, the two female hostages, Carmel Gat and Eden Yerushalmi should have been released last year during the initial deal. Hamas knows this yet it violated the deal last December, and didn’t hand over the Bibas children either.

Hamas is hosted by Qatar. Hamas is backed by Iran, Russia, Turkey, and China. Hamas feels it can hold onto hostages and murder them without any consequences. Hamas knew that Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s family spoke at the Democratic National Convention. Hamas feels impunity to murder hostages because it has not suffered any consequences for the October 7 attack. After Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Yahya Sinwar was chosen to take his place because Hamas assumes Sinwar will survive this war, move to Doha, and lead them like Haniyeh did before. This illustrates the Hamas policy. Recently, Hamas official and former leader Khaled Mashaal gave a speech to attendees at an event in Istanbul calling for a resumption of suicide bombings. He did this openly in Istanbul, Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member. Hamas officials coordinate attacks on Israel from NATO member Turkey and major non-NATO ally Qatar. They fly back and forth from these countries to Moscow and Tehran. This is why Hamas feels it can murder hostages and face no consequences.

The murder of the six hostages has led to condemnation from western leaders. However, this momentary support for Israel continues to come with calls for a ceasefire. Israel’s dilemma now is that it must decide on its policy in Gaza. Currently, Israel’s operations are at a low intensity. The IDF has units in the Netzarim corridor and in Rafah but these are there for limited operations. The IDF has left most of Gaza alone. Hamas controls most of Gaza. The war has gone on for almost 11 months and Hamas controls most of Gaza. Israel’s tactics in Gaza have led to this situation. The IDF and Israel’s security establishment, as well as its political leaders, apparently all believe Hamas will control Gaza when the war is over. The current policy is to reduce Hamas’s “governing” and “military” capabilities. This is a broad concept and it can be argued that Hamas has been reduced. It has lost some 20,000 fighters. But it continues to control most of Gaza. This is particularly true in central Gaza where Hamas rule has never been contested in 10 months of fighting. In Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat, Maghazi, and Bureij, Hamas is intact. It has also returned to Khan Yunis and northern Gaza. It may have returned in limited numbers, but it is there. No force has supplanted Hamas. There are no “bubbles” of local control, as was once floated as a way of replacing Hamas. There is no third force in Gaza.

Israel's dilemma

This is where Israel faces a stark dilemma now. The IDF is concentrating on a new large-scale operation in the West Bank and officials have also said they want to shift focus to northern Israel. Every month, officials say they want to help return Israelis to northern Israel. However, the Hezbollah attacks continue. More than 10,000 Israeli kids have had to start school uprooted from their homes. Never in Israel’s history did it evacuate a whole swath of the country like this for a year. This presents a stark challenge. Hamas continues to control most of Gaza. Hezbollah rains rockets down on northern Israel. Three policemen, Roni Shakuri, Hadas Branch, and Arik Ben Eliyahu, were murdered in the West Bank on September 1. This is a major death toll, along with the six hostages.

Now the dilemma is not just what to do in the West Bank, Gaza and the North. There are questions not just about a ceasefire deal, but also about whether Israel will ever investigate what went wrong on October 7 and learn from it. It’s unclear what the strategy in Gaza has become and why a “day after” plan was never released. It appears the day after plan is to have Hamas in control, but in a more reduced capacity. It is not clear how reconstruction will begin in Gaza, if Hamas is in control. Will Qatari money again flow to Gaza and the tunnels be rebuilt?

So far, Israel appears to be treading water. The murder of the hostages could have been a wake-up call to shift tactics in Gaza. Rather than letting Hamas continue to hold hostages forever, of which there are more than 100 held in Gaza, it could signal a decision to come down hard on Hamas. The murderers of the six hostages apparently slipped away without being caught. Eventually questions will be raised about why none of the Hamas perpetrators of October 7, or those who murdered the hostages, have been brought to trial in Israel. Will there ever be trials for the thousands of perpetrators of the massacre? With no investigation, no trials, and no clear victory in Gaza, it is unclear how Israel will get to the point of defeating Hamas, let alone replacing it as a governing authority in Gaza.

The murder of these hostages might have led to urgency regarding the lives of the other hostages. However, so far, it is not clear that this is the case. Since the issue of the hostages and the ceasefire has been made political in Israel, it means that protests on behalf of both always come down to politics, rather than a national strategy and national desire to make Hamas pay. Some believe the IDF can withdraw from Gaza and then return. Others don’t want to withdraw. However, absent from the conversation is a discussion about sending the IDF forward, surging into the central camps, uprooting Hamas, eliminating Sinwar, and freeing the remaining hostages by force, despite the cost. The murder of the hostages might have engendered a decision to act decisively and seize the initiative. Perhaps 10 months of a slow tactical campaign in Gaza and endless ceasefire talks have not led anywhere, except for allowing Hamas to believe that it can murder hostages and get away with it? This is a stark dilemma for Israel, but it may be time to start asking these tough questions.