Israelis pessimistic about chances of a hostage, ceasefire deal occurring soon - IDI poll

Jewish Israelis are pessimistic about the chance of a ceasefire deal that would lead to the release of the hostages being reached soon, with 78.5% reporting this pessimism in the Israel Democracy Institute’s August Israeli Voice Index.

Some 15.5% of Jews expressed optimism about such a deal occurring soon. Israeli Arabs, on the other hand, are split, with 48% expressing optimism over such a deal and 49% saying they are pessimistic.

Looking at the total sample, 73.5% are pessimistic and 22% are optimistic.

It is important to note that the survey was conducted between August 26 and 28, meaning that the impact of the news on the retrieval of the bodies of six slain hostages from Gaza, reported early this week, and the ensuing mass protests was not measured in the survey.

The poll also examined from where Israelis believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s demand to remain in the Philadephi Corridor stems, with respondents asked to say whether the motivation was based largely on military and strategic concerns or on Netanyahu’s political reasons.

Some 51% said that they believed that this demand is largely based on military and strategic considerations, while 39% of respondents reported that they believe that Netanyahu’s demand is intended to prevent a hostage deal for Netanyahu’s own political reasons.

Jewish respondents were more likely to believe that the demand is based on military motivations, with 58.5% choosing this option and 33% saying it is based on an attempt to prevent a deal for political motivations.

A majority of Arab Israelis believe that the demand is based on preventing a deal for political reasons (66.5%).

The poll also examined whether Israelis agreed with the assertion that this is the last chance for a hostage deal, made by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others.

Respondents were evenly split, with 44.5% believing that it is the last chance and 44.5% believing that it is not.Looking at the impact of the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel on Israelis moods and daily lives, 67% said that the looming threat of an attack is only impacting their daily behavior a little or not at all. Some 55% said it impacts their mood only a little or not at all.

The northern border

On the topic of Israel’s northern front, 67% of Israelis support intensifying fighting against Hezbollah, while 77% of Arab Israelis support a diplomatic agreement.

Some 47% of left-wing Jewish Israelis support pursuing “a diplomatic agreement with Hezbollah despite the chance of an additional conflict with Hezbollah in the future.” Some 21.5% of centrist Israelis supported this diplomacy, while 10% supported continuing the fighting in its current form without increased aggression. Some 7% of right-wing Israelis supported diplomacy, and 8% supported continuing the current strategy; 61% supported launching “a deep offensive, including targeting Lebanese infrastructure.”

When asked if Israel has achieved all it can militarily in Gaza, 64% of Jewish Israelis and 52% of Arab Israelis disagreed with this claim.

Some 66% of respondents said that tensions between Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are harming the management of the war.

Overall, Israelis reported increased optimism in August, with those expressing optimism about the future of democratic rule in Israel rising to 36% from 30% in July. Optimism in national security rose even more, with 39% reporting they were optimistic in August compared to 26% in July.