Five things not understood about the Gaza deal - analysis

Hamas executed six of the hostages it holds in Gaza last weekend, after negotiators had spent days in Doha hammering out the details of how such captives would be freed, including some of those who were killed.

Negotiators had sat there with lists of captives and lists of Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists, discussing all the details of an exchange that would soon take place.

Then Hamas killed some of the hostages who were the subject of that negotiation.

The deliberate execution of those hostages, who were shot multiple times, not only horrified the Americans, but called into question for US officials Hamas’s commitment to actually carry out a deal of any kind, let alone the three-phase one that has been under debate since May 31.

In Israel, however, the debate around who was sabotaging the deal didn’t center around Hamas, it focused on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his “red lines” for a deal, chiefly the IDF retention of control of the Philadelphi Corridor.

Netanyahu’s opponents widely believe that a deal could be closed in an hour, if only the prime minister would allow for a temporary IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.

They say it as if that is the only stumbling block to a deal that would see all the remaining hostages returned, when in fact other issues are at play.

In a series of briefings and interviews over the last 24 hours US officials have details on the record regarding the hostage deal that help separate some facts from fiction and provide a more realistic context to the emotional debate around the hostage deal.

Below is a list of five often misunderstood points regarding the three-phase deal that has been under debate since US President Joe Biden first unveiled the deal on May 31.

1. Will the entire deal be finalized soon?

No, the negations now are only focused on Phase One, which creates a six-week pause to the war in exchange for the release of some 18-32 hostages.

Both Hamas and Israel have agreed to the original framework that US President Joe Biden first unveiled on May 31, that split the deal into three phases, but the details of each phase have to be negotiated and so far, the attention has been on Phase One.

The debate on Phase Two of the deal has yet to begin. When US officials are saying that 90% of the details of the deal have been worked out, they are only referring to Phase One. This means that no mechanism has been worked out for the release of the hostages who will not be part of Phase One. There are 101 hostages in Gaza of whom 66 are believed to be alive.

2. Is Netanyahu killing the deal with talk on Philadelphi?

“Staking out concrete positions in the middle of a negotiation isn’t always particularly helpful,” a US official acknowledged this week referring to Netanyahu. His public insistence on the IDF retention of that buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza is hardly the only sticking point to the deal. According to the US, the Philadelphi Corridor was not even the main focus of the talks last week in Doha.

Israel has actually agreed to reduce its forces along the Philadelphi Corridor to help advance the deal. The original framework deal on May 31 does not mention the Philadelphi Corridor. The IDF is required to withdraw only from populated areas of Gaza during Phase One of the deal and the Philadelphi is not a populated area, but it intersects with some populated areas. Hamas has also insisted that Israel must withdraw from Philadelphi in Phase One.

3. What are the other sticking points?

Details regarding the release of swap of hostages for Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists is one of the main stumbling blocks to the deal, according to the US, and more so now, in the aftermath of the execution of the six hostages. It’s expected that some 800 Palestinian prisoners, including terrorists responsible for killing Israelis, would be freed for some 18-32 hostages.

4. Has Hamas agreed to the deal

According to the Americans Hamas has agreed to the framework proposal but not to any other proposal. Hamas officials have spoken of how they support a July 2 version of the deal. The US has said that they did not fully back that deal, leaving, for example, details about the hostage and prisoner swap to be negotiated later. The White House considers Hamas to be a major obstacle to the deal, particularly in the aftermath of the execution of the hostages.

5. Would the US put another deal on the table

According to the US Ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, the White House is pushing forward with finalizing details of Phase One of the existing deal and is not interested in scrapping it, a move that would likely send it back to square one.