Terror threat on Israel expands beyond Gaza, West Bank into Jordan - analysis

A terrorist attack at the Allenby Crossing is a serious development and illustrates the growing terror threat that is emerging in the West Bank and may also be spreading to the Kingdom of Jordan as well. Three people were killed in the attack on Sunday morning, September 8.

The perpetrator of the attack arrived at the crossing in a truck. “A terrorist approached the area of the Allenby Bridge from Jordan in a truck, exited the truck, and opened fire at the Israeli security forces operating at the bridge,” the IDF said. “The terrorist was eliminated by the security forces, three Israeli civilians were pronounced dead as a result of the attack. IDF soldiers were dispatched to the scene and are currently operating to rule out the suspicion of the truck being rigged with explosives.”

The attack at the Allenby Crossing comes a week after an attack in the southern West Bank killed three Israeli police. Police officers Arik Ben Eliyahu, Hadas Branch, and Roni Shakuri, were killed in an attack near Tarkumiya, which is a major crossing point for trade items and workers crossing from the West Bank.

Deadly terror threat spreads

While the attack at Allenby, which is the major border crossing between Israel and Jordan for many goods entering the Palestinian Authority and Israel, is not likely connected to the attack at Tarkumiya, both of these attacks symbolize how the deadly terror threat is growing.

This is part of the deadly terror wave that crested on October 7 with the Hamas massacre. However, the October 7 attack can now be seen as one shot in this much larger multi-front war.

Prior to October 7 there was already a wave of emerging terror attacks in the West Bank. This was fueled by smuggled weapons – primarily rifles – that were getting into the hands of young men in Jenin and other areas.

Over the last two years the smuggling has increased greatly. This includes smuggling from Jordan. While the full scale of the smuggling is not known, it does include weapons and materials used in explosives. This is a serious threat.

The terrorist attack is part of a string of smuggling activity backed by Iran since October 7th

Iran is behind some of the activities designed to destabilize the Kingdom of Jordan and use it to move weapons and threats closer to Israel. Iran does this via Iraq and Syria. Iran also backs gangs in Syria that smuggle drugs, such as Captagon.

It’s important to understand the Iranian militia nexus in Iraq and Syria is part of both of these activities, and they are not always separate. In addition, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq threaten Jordan directly. Kataib Hezbollah killed three American soldiers in eastern Jordan in January. Iranian-backed militias have sought to combine their attacks on US forces, with attacks on Israel since October 7. This is part of the multi-front war Iran has launched.

Jordan faces Palestinian terror

JORDAN HAS long faced challenges with internal threats. In the 1960s and 1970s it faced off against Palestinian terrorist groups that sought to take over the Kingdom. This is because a large percent of Jordan’s population is made up of Palestinians. These include descendants of Palestinians who fled the 1948 war when Israel became independent. It includes others who left the West Bank over the years.

Jordan gave up its claims over the West Bank in 1988 as part of the process that led to the Oslo peace agreement and the creation of the Palestinian Authority. Jordan nevertheless retains interests in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

The Kingdom sees itself as the protector of the Muslim and Christian holy sites. This has always been a spark that can threaten the region. Jordan’s King Abdullah I was assassinated in Jerusalem in 1951 by a Palestinian.

In recent years the Kingdom has sought to placate Palestinians by championing not just their cause but also preferring not to crack down on incitement against Israel. At the same time, the Kingdom portrays itself as a key link in stability in the region when addressing western countries that are its key backers.

For instance, the Kingdom’s officials have not done enough to condemn the October 7 attack. At the same time, Amman sees the aftermath of October 7 as a potential threat to the region, including to Amman itself because of the rising violence. This includes not just the war in Gaza or Hezbollah’s war on Israel, but the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea that affect trade with Aqaba, and also the rising violence in the West Bank and Iran’s tentacles in Iraq and Syria.

The recent IDF operation against Palestinian terror groups in the northern West Bank is the largest operation of its kind since the Second Intifada. Jordan is concerned. IDF bulldozers are now active in key Palestinian cities and the IDF is using drones to take out terrorists in place like al-Fara’a refugee camp. This area, near Tubas, has become home to numerous terrorists who left Jenin and set up command centers in this area overlooking the Jordan valley. In recent months, there have been more terror threats to Israeli communities in the Jordan valley.

There were so many threats that IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi recently toured the area. These areas such as Tubas and the valleys such as Ghor al-Faria that spill out into the Jordan valley, are now a key to the security of Israel and the region. Any smuggling from Jordan or destabilization from that direction is a major threat.

Jordan has wrestled with this in the past. In the 1990s during the peace process, after Jordan and Israel signed a peace deal, a Jordanian soldier stationed at the so-called Island of Peace, murdered seven Israeli school girls. Although King Hussein condemned the attack and the perpetrator Ahmad Daqamseh was sentenced to prison in Jordan, the attack was not widely condemned by average people.

In fact, Daqamseh received massive support from many sectors in Jordan. In 2013, a total of 110 of 120 Jordanian members of parliament signed a petition for his release. He was released in 2017.

It’s hard to understand how a man who murdered several school girls can be seen as a hero. However, considering the October 7 attack and the lack of condemnation in Jordan, it is more understandable to how incitement aimed at dehumanizing Israelis has led to this kind of belief.

It remains to be seen what caused the Allenby Crossing attack. However, the very fact that there was an attack is symbolic of a much larger problem. The arms trafficking and destabilization and radicalization that has followed the October 7 attack is leading to more deadly and unprecedented attacks.