Now that the IDF has defeated Hamas in Rafah, what comes next? - analysis

Over the last month, the IDF has cemented the defeat of the Rafah Brigade of Hamas. This is an important achievement and an example of how difficult defeating the terrorist group has become.

Rafah could be seen as a microcosm of the challenges in Gaza in general. This raises many questions, including what may come after Rafah.

Rafah was initially a challenge because of opposition from the international community to an Israeli operation in an area where around a million people were sheltering. Once people were evacuated and the international community was placated, Israel was able to proceed in the city and its border area.

The operation was daunting. Hamas had apparently used the Rafah border crossing to bring in weapons and material that it used to fuel its war machine. It had up to 36 kilometers of tunnels under the city and in nearby areas, connecting it to Tel al-Sultan and Khan Yunis. The operation’s delay allowed Hamas to festoon the area with booby traps.

The IDF moved into Rafah to secure the border with Egypt and search for tunnels and hostages. Because the operation was slow, making sure civilians could evacuate, it took three months to defeat Hamas there.

Although the IDF says that the Hamas Rafah Brigade of some 2,000 men has been eliminated, it is unclear whether all of its fighters were eliminated, or if some were able to flee. While it’s clear Hamas has taken losses, it continues to control and exploit humanitarian aid and to use it for profit and to recruit new fighters.

Philadelphi Corridor

 Once the IDF secured Rafah, it was able to take control along the Philadelphi border corridor. The military built a new road there and is securing it with various means. However, the 162nd Division that defeated Hamas in Rafah has been fighting since the war began. IDF units have been tested through unprecedentedly long operations.

With the defeat of Hamas in Rafah, it begs the question, what comes next?

 What next? The IDF now controls two corridors in Gaza. One is along the Egyptian border; the other one in central Gaza is called the Netzarim Corridor, which cuts off Gaza city from central Gaza’s main towns and refugee camps: Nuseirat, Maghazi, el-Bureij and Deir el-Balah.

These areas are all controlled by Hamas, which has freedom of movement in central Gaza and between that area and Khan Yunis. The genocidal terrorist group also has an extensive presence in Gaza City.

The control of these areas is a challenge for Israel’s future policy. Jerusalem could choose to go back into Gaza City or go into the central camps for the first time. If the goal is to defeat Hamas, then Israel will need to go in; if the goal is just to weaken Hamas and let it control Gaza in the long term, then there won’t be another major operation. The end of Hamas in Rafah brings Israel to a crossroads, but not to the certain end of the almost year-old war.