From chaos to fear: Hezbollah’s dilemma - analysis

On Tuesday, Hezbollah faced an unprecedented challenge as thousands of pagers it had acquired for its members began exploding across Lebanon, Syria, and other places. These explosions killed at least 10 Hezbollah members and wounded thousands, including the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, revealing his obvious links to the Iranian-backed terrorist group. Hezbollah then faced an apparent new wave of challenges as more explosions struck the group on Wednesday. What it is left with now is chaos and fear of the future.

For Hezbollah, a key part of its self-image is that it is an elite terrorist group and is relatively safe in Lebanon. Its safety is important because it has often vowed in the past to escalate against Israel if there were attacks in places like Beirut or the Bekaa Valley, for instance. During the last eleven months, the group faced several incidents in both Beirut and Bekaa, and in each case, it expanded its attacks on Israel.

Despite the Jewish state’s actions, there was no indication of fear within Hezbollah’s ranks, obvious from its rallies and from the fact that it continued to openly threaten Israel and the region at large.

Hezbollah’s confidence is important to its cohesive organization as a military-terrorist organization. The organization greatly expanded its role in the region in recent years, taking part in the Syrian Civil War after 2012 and helping prop up the Syrian regime. Back in 1976, it was the Syrian regime that was occupying Lebanon. It left in 2005. Now, Hezbollah plays a role in those areas. After the assassination of the Iranian IRGC’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah took on a larger role.

Nasrallah improved ties between Hezbollah and the Houthis and helped coordinate the Iranian multifront war on Israel. A month into the war, Nasrallah met with key Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) officials to coordinate attacks on Israel. In November, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian met with Nasrallah, as well as Lebanon Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who runs the Amal Movement, a Shi’ite party in Lebanon. The Iranian envoy also met Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the secretary general of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Khalil al-Hayya, a member of the Hamas politburo.

זה לא מדע בדיוני pic.twitter.com/nSqRDYnyAZ

— איתי בלומנטל Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) September 18, 2024

Some history

In August 2022, Nasrallah met with Hamas officials in Beirut, including Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of the group’s political bureau, and senior officials al-Hayya and Osama Hamdan. In September 2023, prior to the October 7 massacre, Nasrallah also met with Arouri and Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the Islamic Jihad’s Beirut-based chief.

This illustrates Hezbollah’s confidence, a confidence it has now lost as it faces an unprecedented crisis of chaos. Chaos leads to fear, which can lead to panic. It is during this phase that the group may make operational mistakes.

Hezbollah now has to respond to Israel’s actions. But it knows that any response may lead to more surprises and more chaos in its ranks. It also knows that the region – the world – is watching. Iran and the other proxies, such as Hamas, the PIJ, and the Houthis, are following closely, as are the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, who launched a drone at Israel that was shot down on September 18.